Question (1 Viewer)

[ND]

Why are the 2003 projections alot higher than the 2002 UAI's for the same aggregate? What statistics suggest that people will be scoring lower this year?

 

[Lazarus]

It attempts to establish a trend between 2001 and 2002; compare both with the 2003 projection.

 

[iambored]

i don't know if this is the same thing (coz i don't know what the 2003 projections are) but while u are answering that ... what made the aggregate from 01 - 02 to up? and is it likely to rise this year?

 

[Minai]

Originally posted by iambored
i don't know if this is the same thing (coz i don't know what the 2003 projections are) but while u are answering that ... what made the aggregate from 01 - 02 to up? and is it likely to rise this year?

I guess people doing better every year, so the standard increases every year. I think u'll find it will rise this year yes.

 

[ND]

Originally posted by Lazarus
It attempts to establish a trend between 2001 and 2002; compare both with the 2003 projection.

But people got higher marks in '02, so wouldn't that suggest that this year is going to be even higher (as Minai suggested), meaning that the UAI's for equivalent marks should be lower?

 

[Lazarus]

Band distributions are too difficult to predict quantitatively. The way they're determined is completely arbitrary.

Currently, it uses 2002 values 'tempered' by the 2001 values.

It's more accurate to base your predictions on percentiles instead of marks anyway - you'll be able to see that they vary less between years.