What is UAI "prediction"? (1 Viewer)

jm1234567890

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The following applies to SAM, JUAIseek and similar programs.

There appears to have been some confusion to what these supposed UAI
"predictors" or "modeler" do. This thread will hopefully once and
for all clear up any misconceptions.

Firstly, no one can predict the future with 100% certainty no matter
how much information is given. So take whatever values you extract
from these programs with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these programs don't actually predict your UAI directly.
They just convert aligned HSC marks to a scaled HSC mark then to
a UAI. They exist to aid you in gaining a greater understanding of your
UAI, what range it may fall into and the whole system in general.
So, if the UAI you "predict" isn't what you expect or you have
qualms about it. You should read more about the determination of
aligned marks and the scaling process, rather than blame the program
for being inaccurate. Since the program uses nothing but freely
available objective data.

Finally, to get the most out of these programs you need to spend time.
Just entering your trial marks into them wont really help you. You need
to have in your mind a good idea of what kind of aligned marks you are
likely to achieve. There has been a lengthy discussion on this in this
forum.

Some quick pointers on judging aligned marks.
- Compare your current work with the standards packages [www.boredofstudies.org/mirror]

- Look at the abilities of the people around you and judge where you fall in the state.
- * The UAI predictors usually have some kind of % you can compare to.

- Look at the results of past students, judge their ability and see their aligned marks
- * although aligned marks are comparable between years, they are approximately similar.

Data available at www.uac.edu.au

I would just like to further emphasize the fact that you cannot simply just put in trial marks you get from school into these programs. I've talked with many students who feel insecure about their HSC performance because they think they are doing well, and in fact are doing well, but the UAI 'estimator' gave them second thoughts because they used it wrongly and just entered trial marks in. Please take account of that. - Ragerunner
 
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fleepbasding

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"Compare your current work with the standards packages [www.boredofstudies.org/mirror]"

The link doesn't work- what does it have in it?
 

speed2

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just take out the "]" at the end of the link and it will work
 

louiseharkness

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assessment marks

how do your assessment marks and ranks alter your uai. Do they have much of an impact?
Im coming in the top 5 for most of m subjects, will that help my uai??
 
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How many people can get the same UAI? It is a rank so does that mean many more than one person can get the same? I know it sounds stupid as, I was just having a conversation with someone about it.
 

volition

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Yeah there are about 60000 people who do the HSC each year, probably a bit less than that actually get a UAI, but if you think about it this way, there's only about 20X100 = 2000 'unique UAI's', so there would have to be some people who share the same UAI.
 
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I think all this stress made me a bit gaga. I was like "but there are only .05 increments, that means 20 per UAI numeral, that is not enough to go around!" Phew! Thanks for fixing that up.
 

huangker

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Uai prediction is always diffcult. First you need to have a good idea of what your final scaled marks would look like. (have a look at my reply at http://community.boredofstudies.org/showthread.php?t=73857&page=4)

Then all the hard work is done for u by wonderful ppl like jm1234567890. Just plug them in. This wont be completely accurate (its a prediction after all) but it will give you a good idea.
 

abird

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but how do we even get to this scaling prediction thing in the first place.. i cant find it on this site...
 

lessyloo

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so are the marks depicted in the pie graph an estimation of your performance in the exam?
 

Lazarus

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The marks in the pie graph are your scaled marks.

You should be estimating your own exam performance when you enter your anticipated HSC marks.
 

lessyloo

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thanks lazarus. ok so if i think i will get, say 85, in an exam i enter that for that subject. I think i've been grossly overassesed by my school. How will my assessment marks be affected in light of a significantly lower exam performance?

also is it true that if you are first in a subject, you maintain that rank no matter what in the exam, or is that just a myth?
 

Lazarus

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Your assessment mark won't be affected much by your own exam mark - it is the distribution of the exam marks of your class as a whole that will be determinative.

If you are ranked first in a subject within your school, you are guaranteed to receive the top assessment mark, regardless of what sort of moderating procedures occur. The top assessment mark is usually set equal to the top exam mark.

You will still receive your own exam mark as your exam mark.
 

lessyloo

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thanks laz. just a question about scaling, i've heard that if you do extension 2 english you need to do well in advanced and extension, otherwise the fourth unit is scaled down and vica versa?

So the mark given to the board of studies has absolutely no relevance, it is the top exam mark that is the top assessment mark possible?
 

ellie44

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Can you please help me, I'm new :) I was just wondering, do you think I've made the right choice on choosing music 1, general maths, advanced english, biology, ancient history and french continuers to get a UAI of 85+???
 

tanjin

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ellie44 said:
Can you please help me, I'm new :) I was just wondering, do you think I've made the right choice on choosing music 1, general maths, advanced english, biology, ancient history and french continuers to get a UAI of 85+???
Make a new thread! Regarding subject choice, you can get 100, it'll all depend on how well you perform.
 

ellie44

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lol thanks umm...i really dont know how to make a new thread otherwise i would've done so :S lol btw i love your little jokes and cartoons they're hilarious :)
 

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