Hey Jonow, nice to see u join the bored community (hehe, bored....that makes me laugh every time)
anyway, back on track...
to answer ur first question on estimates....u may want to have a read through this thread... (to save u some time, its predicted that the band 6 cutoff will be around the low 80's range... remeber this is just a prediction)
http://community.boredofstudies.org/showthread.php?t=91544
now for ur second question
when u recieve ur results from the board of studies, whether it be via sms, phone or interent, or even by mail, those results are ur aligned results, u never get to see ur RAW marks (unless ur application under the FOI act is successful, but u dont have to worry about this)
so, the aligned mark is the exam mark u recieve from BOS!
now, ur internal mark undergoes a process know as "moderation" where ur internal mark is "moderated".... the average of this mark and ur "aligned HSC exam mark become ur FINAL HSC MARK for each particular course.
for example:
moderated assessment mark - aligned HSC exam mark - Final HSC mark
...................... 86........................................84................................85...........
when ur UAI is calculated, UAC uses ur RAW marks (the marks that u never get to see), and not ur aligned marks (the marks sent to u by mail).