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probability.... (1 Viewer)

mojako

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A question from Cambridge:
the probability that a jackpot prize will be won in a given lottery is 0.012.
the jackpot prize is initially $10,000 and increass by $10,000 each time the prize is not won. Find, to 5 decimal places, the probability that the jackpot prize will exceed $200,000 when it is finally won.

What's the quick way to do that.
I think I can do it by finding the probability that it will be $200,000 or less by summing the probabilities of getting 1 win in 1 lottery, 2 lotteries, 3, 4, ..., 20. But it takes ages. Is there a pattern or another way?
 

ngai

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once its won, then its gone rite?
so to exceed 200000, the 1st 19 times it can't be won:
(1-0.012)^19
then it will exceed 200000, so whether it wins or not, i don't care anymore
P = (0.988)^19 = 0.79503
 

wogboy

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P = (0.988)^19 = 0.79503
Shouldn't it be (0.988)^20 instead, because the 20th lotto the prize will be precisely $200,000 which doesn't exceed $200,000.
 

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