On the front page for weeks or months now whos an idiot, Iraq didn't manage to occupy the front page continuously for months....
And beside from which how much coverage did Aceh get? Little to none, the only reason it got abit more was because of the tsunami that flooded the area with reporters. Any negative press would be copped by indonesia not us. And indonesia could use its position to gain US support for its actions. eg support us we are the largest muslim state, we're democratic and we're preventing the emergence of an unstable state and terrorist base.
The island wouldnt be invaded by CNN and BBC because the indonesian army is not (entirely) stupid they would seal it off from the media - much like they sealed off Aceh.
Oh and the comparison to Saigon is abit of a stretch.
More realistically Australia will deploy again, restore some semblence of stability, withdraw again in say a year or two years time and everything will fall to pieces a year or so after that. And this cycle could be repeated ad nauseum because:
The east timorese may be a nation in their own right (dubious because their nationalism is negative not positive) however the notion of a state is completely alien to them. They have no previous experience of self-government aside from tribal. There is no middle-class to sustain democracy. The economy is atrocious and I would suggest could only ever survive intrinsically linked to Indonesias. The forces to maintain law and order are partisan.
In my view there are only four long term options for East Timor and none are particularly good:
*Becomes a defacto Australian territory much like PNG did. This would be difficult to sell domestically or internationally, would represent a continuing financial drain and would require a certain level of oppression to sustain.
*Is re-occupied by Indonesia. All the same cons as above except they dont fall on us they fall on indonesia.
*Becomes a failed state lurching from coup to crisis etc. See nauru, fiji, solomon islands, new zealand, etc.
*We establish a state and give them the whole oil fields, a despotic and nepotistic regime in the style of the middle-east emerges. Democracy becomes a pipe dream, East timor becomes a rentier state surviving off oil money. Oil money is used as essentially bribery keeping the population semi-happy with welfare and being prepared to enforce obediance with an Army. This scenario would see the dominant rebel group in charge, its leaders become a junta, its followers the army.
So theres four things that could happen, Australian power, indonesian power, no power (which lets face it would mean an indonesian invasion) and their own repressive state.
