That sounds correct to me.
I would love to get into medicine, my situation is as you've described in the first scenario.
High estimate of 99
UMAT results might be 'good/better' than others, etc.
I get asked into first-round interviews, and I ace it.
The outlook is good, until such time as the UAI comes out.
I get 95.45 (for example).
Another person, who was estimated at 96, and had equally 'good' UMAT results, may not be asked for an interview? (I think he/she will be asked, but at a later stage).
Once the second person's UAI comes out, they'll be asked for the interview, seeing as though the estimate was just to make the distinction between 1st round and main round interviews?
Excerpt from a UNSW medicine email.
The following are the main elements of the process of offering places that will occur in January 2004:
1. All ineligible applicants will be removed from consideration (i.e. those who achieved a UAI (or equivalent) of less than 95.00 and those who did not sit an interview).
2. All other applicants will be ranked on the combination of their UAI (or equivalent), UMAT results and interview performance.
3. Commencing with the highest ranked applicant, each applicant will be offered their highest available preference until the quota for each category is filled.
Important Notes
1. As there are separate quotas for each category, you will maximise your chance of being offered a place by being prepared to accept a place in all categories. However, it is important that you do not enter a preference for a category in which you have no intention of accepting a place.
If you enter a preference and you are made an offer in that
category, and subsequently change your mind, your offer will be withdrawn and no further offer will be made in any other category.
2. As the final ranked list will be strictly adhered to in allocating
places, no advantage will be obtained by any particular order of
preference. Therefore you are advised to indicate your preferences precisely in accordance with your personal wishes.
3. If you do not complete the preference form, it will be assumed that you want to be considered for the unbonded category only.
Link to the preference form:
http://notes.med.unsw.edu.au/medicalbonding.nsf/website/Notice