Two points:
I
People who are expecting 95+ aligned are not good at judging the E4 cutoff.
Last year's exam was very easy for those top people, but people around the cutoff generally found it more difficult than average.
It seemed that there was a 'hump' one had to get over - anyone whose ability got them over this hump found the test easy.
I think this year's exam was harder for those top people, but about the same for people around the cutoff. So I wouldn't expect a lower cutoff.
II
Why do so many people think the E3 cutoff is 80?
The bands are
E4: 90+
E3: 70-89
E2: 50-69
E1: <50