ATAR Estimate (1 Viewer)

[meDAawesome]

Hi guys just want some honest ATAR estimates

School rank: 50s


English advanced
60/161
77/105 (about 30 band 6s every year)

Mathematics
11/154
91/100 (about 30 band 6s every year)

Maths Ext 1
21/69
52/70 (about 30 e4s every year)

Physics
24/80
81/100 (about 5 band 6s every year)

Modern History
11/69
81/100 (about 8 band 6s every year)

Economics
3/46
90/100 (about 5 band 6s every year)

Thanks guys!

 

[meDAawesome]

95

Thanks!

 

[sida1049]

Making my usual assumptions (trials were standard difficulty, HSC exams this year don't fluctuate much, you get about as much in your HSC as your trials, et cetera), I estimate 98. A more conservative estimate is 97, but in relatively high ranking schools, higher ATAR estimates are typically quite safe. (I went to a school ranked 94th during my HSC year, and a 99's estimate using the method landed only .2 ATAR points off!)

The subjects dragging you down the most are Modern History (lowest, due to scaling) and Advanced English (Physics is coming a close third after Advanced English).

Good luck!

 

[pikachu975]

Making my usual assumptions (trials were standard difficulty, HSC exams this year don't fluctuate much, you get about as much in your HSC as your trials, et cetera), I estimate 98. A more conservative estimate is 97, but in relatively high ranking schools, higher ATAR estimates are typically quite safe. (I went to a school ranked 94th during my HSC year, and a 99's estimate using the method landed only .2 ATAR points off!)

The subjects dragging you down the most are Modern History (lowest, due to scaling) and Advanced English (Physics is coming a close third after Advanced English).

Good luck!

He's in a band 6 range for 3 subjects only, how did you estimate a 99?

 

[sida1049]

He's in a band 6 range for 3 subjects only, how did you estimate a 99?

I estimated (low) 98, or 97 if I'm being conservative.

That said, it's very possible to score low 99 ATARs with only 3 Band 6 results. I'm an all-rounder, and yet my friend with only 4 Band 6's in his subjects beat me in the 99s game by a significant margin.

It should be noted that OP is in the safe mid-Band 6 ranges in 3 of his subjects (2U, 3U maths and Economics), borderline Band 6 for Modern History and likely high Band 5's for the rest of his subjects. There's not really a significant discrete difference between the band thresholds in regards to contributions to ATAR.

 

[pikachu975]

I estimated (low) 98, or 97 if I'm being conservative.

That said, it's very possible to score low 99 ATARs with only 3 Band 6 results. I'm an all-rounder, and yet my friend with only 4 Band 6's in his subjects beat me in the 99s game by a significant margin.

It should be noted that OP is in the safe mid-Band 6 ranges in 3 of his subjects (2U, 3U maths and Economics), borderline Band 6 for Modern History and likely high Band 5's for the rest of his subjects. There's not really a significant discrete difference between the band thresholds in regards to contributions to ATAR.

How is 91/100 and 52/70 safe mid band 6?

 

[kashkow]

How is 91/100 and 52/70 safe mid band 6?

There's aligning and also look at the past band 6/E4s, the dude fits in the range so, as long as the past trend is correct*, it means his MX1 exams are probably harder at his school than the HSC.

*meaning that the last year wasn't an outlier and this year isn't an outlier. ie. that is the usual amount that gains band 6s/E4s each year.

 

[trecex1]

I estimated (low) 98, or 97 if I'm being conservative.

That said, it's very possible to score low 99 ATARs with only 3 Band 6 results. I'm an all-rounder, and yet my friend with only 4 Band 6's in his subjects beat me in the 99s game by a significant margin.

It should be noted that OP is in the safe mid-Band 6 ranges in 3 of his subjects (2U, 3U maths and Economics), borderline Band 6 for Modern History and likely high Band 5's for the rest of his subjects. There's not really a significant discrete difference between the band thresholds in regards to contributions to ATAR.

I put your predictions for his marks into a few calcs, assuming he gets 95/47/95 for 3 subjects and "borderline" so 89-90 for modern history and mid 80's for the rest, he's looking at about 95-96.

I guess your friend got very high band 6's in high scaling subjects so it seems viable.

 

[kashkow]

I put your predictions for his marks into a few calcs, assuming he gets 95/47/95 for 3 subjects and "borderline" so 89-90 for modern history and mid 80's for the rest, he's looking at about 95-96.

I guess your friend got very high band 6's in high scaling subjects so it seems viable.

Guess it comes down to the individual and their performance in the HSC exams. Obviously not everyone with just 3 band 6's and rest lower bands will get 99, like it's not guaranteed or anything, but I guess it is possible so it's potentially achievable given hard work and doing well in particular subjects.

But yeah I think the main point is it's not the end of the world if you don't get all band 6, or even most band 6. You can still get high ATARS without all band 6s. Like sida said about his friends getting 99 with 3 band 6s.

I ran the numbers through once and there was around 2000 in the state that achieved all rounders which out of 70000 is like 2.8%. So basically if you get all rounders (which is what I'm actually aiming for) you are about the top two percent of the state and that's about 98 ATAR (simplified obv). However if you fall short of a band by a few marks it's not like ATARS fall dramatically, since they are related to the mark difference rather than bands. The all rounders is just an ideal/easy benchmark analogy to gauge the ATAR, but if one does extremely well in one of those (maybe scoring 95-97) it could offset for a lower mark such as a high band 5 (87-89).

LOL that's just my thinking anyway, if anyone cares.

 

[sida1049]

I put your predictions for his marks into a few calcs, assuming he gets 95/47/95 for 3 subjects and "borderline" so 89-90 for modern history and mid 80's for the rest, he's looking at about 95-96.

I guess your friend got very high band 6's in high scaling subjects so it seems viable.

I used the Talent 100 ATAR Calculator (despite it estimates higher than a couple of other popular calculators, it displays more information) with the following HSC reported marks (and to clarify further, these are the marks after alignment, based upon the samples from rawmarks.info):
- Advanced English: 88
- 2U maths: 94
- 3U maths: 91
- Physics: 88
- Economics: 94
- Modern History: 89

... and you get 97.45.

And this is assuming OP doesn't improve at all. This is assuming that his trials were good simulations of the HSC, and that he'll get exactly what he got on the trials as what he will get on the HSC exams. While there are inaccuracies, these assumptions are fairly sound for HSC students as a group.

Assuming mid-Band 5's reported marks for OP's non-Band 6 range subjects is quite harsh.