Version 3 of my ATAR projection model has been completed. It projects the top end of better schools with improved accuracy, as in the old model it would ocassionaly exceed predictions of 100 for top students in top schools. This has been adjusted so it is no longer the case and the only way to get 100.00 is to be rank 1 and have a strong cohort (however ranks 2 etc. can get 99.xx which might round to 100).
As I no longer have time to model any more ATARs, I am releasing the model which you may use to estimate your own atars. You need: Your rank, total candidature number, and band 6s average of cohorts (obtainable on HSC ninja by typing in the school).
Use an excel spreadsheet and type the following things in (example from thinking hard):
DATA
English -----> 45/125 (72 B6s)
Math Adv -----> 29/106 (42 B6s)
Math Extension -----> 41/68 (58 B6s)
Eco ---> 2/35 (17 B6s)
Business Studies ---> 2/19 (17 B6s)
Physics ---> 13/24 (9 B6s)
Now do the above, put it in a spreadsheet and check the HSC mark comes out at 91.76.
Repeat for other subjects and check you get same results of (these examples are good as they cover the range of possibilities for entering the data, so practice all of them):
Eco - 96.61
Buisness - 99.66
Math adv - 91.53
Math ext - 95.62
Phys - 86.18
Now take these HSC marks and put them into HSC ninja to get an aggreggate. Then take the HSC ninja atar prediction if ATAR < 99.50 or find a better agreggate to atar source e.g UAC scaling report.
The 2019 HSC ninja prediction is 98.95 with aggregate 444.26.
If anyone here wants to make any improvements to the model or fit some data points to it and make adjustments, feel free to post your subsequent findings!
As I no longer have time to model any more ATARs, I am releasing the model which you may use to estimate your own atars. You need: Your rank, total candidature number, and band 6s average of cohorts (obtainable on HSC ninja by typing in the school).
Use an excel spreadsheet and type the following things in (example from thinking hard):
DATA
English -----> 45/125 (72 B6s)
Math Adv -----> 29/106 (42 B6s)
Math Extension -----> 41/68 (58 B6s)
Eco ---> 2/35 (17 B6s)
Business Studies ---> 2/19 (17 B6s)
Physics ---> 13/24 (9 B6s)
| ENGLISH (CELL A1) | |
| 72 | <- enter the number of band 6 students |
| 125 | <- enter the number of total students |
| =1-(A2-1)/(A3-1) | |
| =A4*2.4-1.4 | <- enter as -1 if more than 83% of students get a band 6, otherwise enter the formula. |
| =tan(A5) | |
| 45 | <- enter the rank |
| =1-(A7-1)/(A3-1) | |
| =A8*2.4-1.4 | |
| =if(A8>A4,3.3,6) | =if(B8>B4,5,9) use for non-english subjects (use the left cell one for English subjects) |
| =if(A8>A4,A10*(asin(A9)-asin(A5)),(tan(A9)-A6)*A10) | |
| =sin((7/A10)+asin(A5)) | |
| =if(3/(1-A12)<25,3/(1-A12),25) | |
| =(A9-A12)*A13+7 | |
| =if(A11>7,90+A14, 90+A11) | <- HSC Mark (here 91.76) |
Repeat for other subjects and check you get same results of (these examples are good as they cover the range of possibilities for entering the data, so practice all of them):
Eco - 96.61
Buisness - 99.66
Math adv - 91.53
Math ext - 95.62
Phys - 86.18
Now take these HSC marks and put them into HSC ninja to get an aggreggate. Then take the HSC ninja atar prediction if ATAR < 99.50 or find a better agreggate to atar source e.g UAC scaling report.
The 2019 HSC ninja prediction is 98.95 with aggregate 444.26.
If anyone here wants to make any improvements to the model or fit some data points to it and make adjustments, feel free to post your subsequent findings!
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