Sunny one day, defeated the next
Queensland's election is far from the boost it may seem for Kim Beazley, writes Peter Hartcher.
Labor may rule in the Sunshine State, but in Canberra it is out of power and in a state of denial. Most of its federal members do not comprehend the seriousness of their situation. Although the party can delude itself by concentrating on opinion polling, which shows it to be ahead of the Government, the truth is Labor is brilliantly positioned to lose the next federal election. Again.
Labor is in front in the headline poll numbers, but it has spent long spells in this position in earlier terms. It should know by now that its sunny mid-term season will turn stormy by polling day unless it can produce political climate change.
Two events this week should have thundered in the Labor caucus room like the rumble of an approaching tempest. First, the Queensland election demonstrated that even a government in crisis can be re-elected if the leader is reasonably well liked and the opposition leader is not.
Second, newspaper polls this week showed that at the federal level the Prime Minister is reasonably well liked and the Opposition Leader is not. [...]
Australians are generally cautious politically. We've changed federal government only four times since 1949. Australian politics is always an incumbent's game. And with a Government associated with a long economic boom, a Government that promises to protect us against terrorists, a Government led by a popular Prime Minister, it may be hopeless for Labor to do anything in a positive sense that will deliver power.
But Labor has an obligation to make every effort to win. Barring some extraordinary event in the year ahead, it will lose if led by Beazley. Federal Labor would rather be led by Peter Beattie, and some senior party officials thought hard about drafting him, before concluding it was impossible to achieve in time for next year's election.
Instead the party is being led by the Lawrence Springborg of national politics. Acknowledging his failure, Springborg resigned yesterday. How long will Labor give Beazley?
Full Article: SMH