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external stability (1 Viewer)

sakurali823

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what does exchange rate and CAD have to do with EXTERNAL STABILITY?

eg. in china, an increase in value of the Chinese yuan would increase the cost of their exports, thus help the trade imbalance with the US.

is that sort of correct?

thankssss
 

sk8ie_boi

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Let's just take your example with China and the U.S.

At the moment, as you know - US has a high CAD to China (Import > Export). How do you fund a growing CAD? You borrow! And where else than from China?

Most of the time, US has the ability to pay China back as the CAD is under 6% of the GDP. But that number is growing and eventually, China is going to feel that US might not be able to pay it back. And therefore stops lending money.

Once that happens, The Chinese Yuan would appreciate! Leading to increased cost of US's imports ==> and forcing US to consume domestic products (which is inefficient) ==> recession.

So do you understand how have a high CAD will lead to appreciation of exchange rate and therefore reducing external stability.

Australia is around 5% CAD of the GDP... so let's just hope, that doesn't grow anymore.
 
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One point is that once the CAD grows larger, a larger amount of money flows out of a country, and that will finally lead to an increase in the supply of that country's currency in the global economy. Then, as the result of this increase in the supply of money, a depreciation of the currency will occur.

Also, as the result of the depreciation, imports will become more expensive in domestic market. Theoretically speaking, in a short period of time, CAD will increase due to money outflows on Net Goods or Net Services accounts. However, as long as the purchasing power of the incomes of consumers can not satisfy them with more imports, they might reduce spending on such imports, and the CAD will be improved.

In some cases, foreign investors would also consider the CAD a criterion or an indicaton of the health of an economy, when making decisions of investments in a country. Once the CAD grows to a high level, investors, especially financial investors, might think that it's risky to invest into this country since the country's businesses and industries might experience difficulty in repaying loans or dividends in the future. Therefore, less investments, lower the demand for the currency, and depreciation occurs.

Back to the example of the appreciated value of the Renminbi (Chinese Yuan,人民幣), it's now regarded as a disadvantage to the Chinese economy by some economists, because it reduces the competitiveness of the Chinese exports. In theory, China will gain from its export in a short run, but it won't give China more advantages in the future, because Vietnam is another fast growing country that is noticed by western investors, as well as other ACEAN nations. Therefore, in 2006, I remember, the Chinese government established an economic plan, aiming to transform China's major industries into technological and heavy industries, to avoid competition in the future while receiving higher export revenue.

lol...... just typed these up according to my memory...
 
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