Global Financial Crisis (2 Viewers)

[blue_chameleon]

Every government around the world is blaming everything on the financial crisis. It makes sense considering most people's grasp of the economy is rather more limited than the near-paranoid musings of journalists (he's severely overdoing the potential power of the inflation rise prior to the crisis, and he seems to be oblivious to the fact that the US economy started tanking at the start of this year, not just when Lehman brothers crashed).

Except Bush. He's blaming the financial crisis on 9/11.

But if you were going to post a big wad of text, you could have at least quoted the whole article, instead of just the bits you like.

Sorry, what?

Source?

 

[Trefoil]

I'll find it for you in a bit. Either you don't trust me, or you can't believe Bush is saying that.

But this is interesting: the OECD, the IMF, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Australian Treasury all predict between 1.5% and 2% growth for Australia next year, and between 2% and 3% growth for 2010.

That is: we won't go into recession.

"Other [Western] countries expected to beat recession include Norway, Greece, Turkey and several eastern European nations, such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24709117-643,00.html

 

[sthcross.dude]

WoRSE THAN THE GREAT DEPRESSION!

 

[SashatheMan]

WoRSE THAN THE GREAT DEPRESSION!

worse then 25% unemployment level?

 

[zstar]

worse then 25% unemployment level?

A total collapse of America's economy is coming, That's as soon as foreigners stop funding American debt.

 

[SashatheMan]

what do you give me if the US recovers within the next 18 months?

It's possible. I some how stay skeptical when it comes to those total apocolyptic scenarios.

 

[boris]

Meh i wouldn't mind another great depression. Plenty of food out here.

 

[stazi]

4th straight positive day in america.

 

[Trefoil]

4th straight positive day in america.

The thing is it's hard to tell if it's a rally or a reaction to Obama's appointments.

Every day of increase has coincided with Obama announcing members of his economic cabinet.

Maybe it doesn't matter - a rally is a rally and usually when it happens, it happens hard.

A total collapse of America's economy is coming, That's as soon as foreigners stop funding American debt.

'Foreigners' (China) aren't going to do that unless they want their own economy to crash and burn... which they don't.

 

[zstar]

what do you give me if the US recovers within the next 18 months?

It's possible. I some how stay skeptical when it comes to those total apocolyptic scenarios.

I'll suck your balls voluntarily if that happens.

 

[Trefoil]

what do you give me if the US recovers within the next 18 months?

It's possible. I some how stay skeptical when it comes to those total apocolyptic scenarios.

It's quite possible, but it might be a little early.

US growth in 2009 is expected to be negative, and then turn positive again in 2010. So the recession will be gone in 18 months, but I think recovery will take longer - probably twice as long (i.e. 3 years).

 

[Tredmond]

For Aussies there are a couple of reasons to be optimistic.

1. The dollar has depreciated
This makes our exports more competitive, but at the same time makes imports more expensive. I remember hearing on Insight that some companies have already benefited from increasing export earnings from purchases from China.

2. Oil prices have fallen
Always a good boost to the economy. Lowers input costs and drives demand.

It's hard to predict what'll happen next, so I guess we should be ready for anything I guess. Another interesting topic would be the government's utter willingness in embracing Keynesian economics over neoclassical principles. As far as I know from my macro knowledge all of the fiscal stimulus is purely a short term stimulation to the economy - in the medium run (basically over 3 or 4 years) the effect is neutral, or nothing basically. So the government CANNOT sustain or increase economic growth in the medium run, but the way they talk about it (or maybe the way the media presents it) they seem to think they can do this.

 

[Trefoil]

It's hard to predict what'll happen next, so I guess we should be ready for anything I guess. Another interesting topic would be the government's utter willingness in embracing Keynesian economics over neoclassical principles. As far as I know from my macro knowledge all of the fiscal stimulus is purely a short term stimulation to the economy - in the medium run (basically over 3 or 4 years) the effect is neutral, or nothing basically. So the government CANNOT sustain or increase economic growth in the medium run, but the way they talk about it (or maybe the way the media presents it) they seem to think they can do this.

I'm no economist, but a few things...

It depends on the type of stimulus. A cash hand out is a purely short-term measure. An infrastructure stimulus is a short-, medium-, and long-term measure (so long-term in fact, that they eventually have to be careful not to increase inflation once the crisis is over). Rudd has issued both types of stimulus.

But that aside, you should also probably take note of the fact that Australia was growing rapidly before this crisis, so much so that inflation was a significant worry. And after this crisis, we will grow rapidly again (the developing countries still need our minerals). That is: we don't NEED to worry about economic growth in the long-term, because it's pretty much assured. The only other significant Western country in this enviable situation is Canada - another commodity economy.

As an example, right now, in the middle of this 'crisis' (it's hardly a crisis in Australia), business investment spending is still at record levels, and first home sales have started increasing again: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24718593-5013871,00.html

 

[blue_chameleon]

That is: we don't NEED to worry about economic growth in the long-term, because it's pretty much assured.

How long-term are you talking? We don't need to worry, that is until our resources dry up.

 

[Trefoil]

Pretty damn long-term. I imagine demand for our resources from India and China and such will flatline before we run out of minerals. And that sort of thing happens over time, not overnight, so we'd have plenty of time to adapt.

But hey, it's not much of a problem in that sense. Raw commodities make up a small portion of our economy. They drive growth, but they don't actually make up much of our GDP. Most of our economy is services and manufacturing, from memory.

 

[Trefoil]

Australian share market posts biggest week-long rally on record.

 

[stazi]

itd be interesting to see how the US market opens - our monday should be relatively flat, luckily

 

[Keepleft]

The share markets can be expected to show improvement over XMAS - early 09, in part owing the US$700b printed bail AND the trillions of Yen etc thrown into the markets, BUT the 'downturn events' are not expected to hit till mid 09 -2010, so they say.

I'd be paying off credit card debt and lines-of-credit product in this 'window'. By way of product, I would suggest debt Visa or Debt Mastercard instead of 'credit' versions of same. Here, purchase can only be made against cash in the bank.

Product example;-
http://www.westpac.com.au/internet/publish.nsf/Content/PBTS+Debit+MasterCard

http://www.nab.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/Personal_Finance/21/244?campaignID=STH&WT.mc_id=STH



If you own a credit card, read this weblink, and see the examples;-
http://www.fido.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/Training+your+credit+card?openDocument#minimum

REM - 2009 see's changes to ATM Administration and fee applicable changes and charges, so keep an eye on your accounts mid 09.
http://www.rba.gov.au/PaymentsSystem/Reforms/ATM/ProgressReports/index.html

 

[nottu]

wtf is an econonmy anyway.. what does

 

[Trefoil]

wtf is an econonmy anyway.. what does

You accidentally the whole thread.