Hi, I require assistance with an upcoming research task (inflation/external stability) (1 Viewer)

NebbyIsBest

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Hi,

I have an upcoming extended response research task related to inflation and external stability, and am currently preparing by writing practice essays. I would greatly appreciate any assistance or clarification for questions/knowledge gaps I have!

1. I'm assuming the question will be an evaluation on macro/micro policies' effectiveness in achieving inflation/external stability objectives. Reading last year's exemplar responses to the same question, the judgement was that MP, FP and micro were generally ineffective in increasing inflation to meet the objective as underlying inflation remained under 2%. However now the inflation is way above the target at 5.1%. So I'm confused as to what I should evaluate the policies to be. Are they still ineffective, as inflation would've continued to remain below 2% had external global events not occurred? Or are they ineffective for the opposite reason as they overshot inflation from below the target to above? Or are they actually effective because had external global events not occurred, then the policies would've increased inflation to a healthy rate within the 2-3% target?
2. Adding onto the previous point, I've researched that one of the primary causes for the high inflation currently stems from the record government expenditure to increase AD and thus demand-pull inflation. Meanwhile, MP's lowering of the cash rate to 0.1% was not as effective as FP as it resulted in a liquidity trap, even though MP is theoretically more effective in controlling inflation as it primarily focuses on inflation. So is this information correct, or was the low interest rates in fact a larger contributor to the rise in inflation?
3. I learned to always include limitations in assess questions like these, and have included time lag, bank cooperation and liquidity trap for MP. However aside from it not focusing on inflation, I struggle to fully understand what limits FP in this situation. What political constraints were present in the past couple federal budgets that prevented it from fully promoting what is best for the economy? What other major limitations should I note in the essay?
4. If the essay question ends up asking for both inflation and external stability, how should I structure my essay to ensure that I'm covering each syllabus point in sufficient detail? Should I focus MP on inflation, and FP on external stability, and tack on MEP at the end? Or should the structure be more evenly distributed even though it's much easier to write MP for inflation for example. Furthermore, should I talk about the development of inflation and policies since 1990, or should the essay focus more on recent events from 2015-22 as this period also covers both high and low inflation? (I understand this is dependent on my school but I would still appreciate suggestions and thoughts).
(5. Would it be cool if I add onto this thread w/ edits or replies if I have more questions? Not too sure the rules/customs of this forum since I am new, sorry!)

I apologise if this is too wordy, and I would be grateful for any answers.
Thanks!
 

nourished.

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Lol, it really is a wall of text.

1. The short answer is: you can argue it as you see fit.

The key is writing in an objective but critical way. Ie the policies may have been effective at stimulating the economy, but then counterargue yourself that it might be more because of other factors like higher construction costs and fuel prices.

Argue for, then against yourself.

2. Well, we do know that we saved a crap load during covid despite low interest rates.

I might add that this led to higher house prices at the time rather than higher wages.

3. Sounds like a good list of limitations to me.

I might add how a govt deficit generally associates itself with more foreign debt/CAD, ie external stability.

4. Evenly distributed.

I would split it into time periods and then talk about FP, MP and micro in that order. You're allowed to split these time periods into smaller paragraphs for each policy if you'd like.

The boom in 2011 to present seems to be a good time period to talk about, ie it has a boom and a recession.

5. Do it. Pls space though lmao.
 

NebbyIsBest

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Lol, it really is a wall of text.

1. The short answer is: you can argue it as you see fit.

The key is writing in an objective but critical way. Ie the policies may have been effective at stimulating the economy, but then counterargue yourself that it might be more because of other factors like higher construction costs and fuel prices.

Argue for, then against yourself.

2. Well, we do know that we saved a crap load during covid despite low interest rates.

I might add that this led to higher house prices at the time rather than higher wages.

3. Sounds like a good list of limitations to me.

I might add how a govt deficit generally associates itself with more foreign debt/CAD, ie external stability.

4. Evenly distributed.

I would split it into time periods and then talk about FP, MP and micro in that order. You're allowed to split these time periods into smaller paragraphs for each policy if you'd like.

The boom in 2011 to present seems to be a good time period to talk about, ie it has a boom and a recession.

5. Do it. Pls space though lmao.
Hi, thanks for the response! Sorry for the wall of text, I will try to avoid that in the future.

I have written my practice essay, however it's currently around 1.7k words even after cutting unnecessary bits out. This is my current structure:

P1: MP theory w/ pre-2011 response integrated for inflation (PIRC, transmission mechanism)
P2: MP 2019-2021 for inflation (cash rate cut from 4.75-1.5%, time lag limit, 0.1% cash rate in 2020, liquidity trap as a limit)
P3: MP 2022 for inflation (contractionary stance, forward guidance, limited as it fails to address cost-push)
P4: MP for external stability (expansionary reduces foreign investment > NFD, higher interest rate > financial volatility)

P5: FP for inflation (2013-2021 budget deficit, COVID-19 Jobseeker as automatic stab, discretionary $192 package to households)
P6: FP for inflation (2022 conflict between unemployment and inflation, political constraints from Labor budget)
P7: FP for external stability (S-I gap, fiscal consolidation to offset through lower NFD)
P8: FP for external stability (large budget deficit from 2020 onwards, eco growth and inflation conflict, Pitchford thesis as BOGs improve)

P9: MER for inflation (labour reforms increase competitiveness for lower inflation, political constraints)
P10: MER for external stability (trade liberalisation ChAFTA leads to higher BOGs, also causes higher NFE)

I am having quite a lot of difficulty in fitting in all the content I want into the essay whilst still making it realistic to write in the 45 minute exam. Just based on what I have said above, which paragraphs do you think are the least relevant or overly excessive so that I could cut them out?

Thanks!
 

mmmmmmmmaaaaaaa

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1.7k will be quite a struggle to write in 45 minutes, you'll definitely need to cut 2+ points I'd assume.

Cut P10 --> what you've already got on external stability should be enough
If you can, try to merge P1 and P2, that may help to cut a few words down

Again, if it's an unseen question, make sure you're able to maneuver your practice response in order to properly answer the question.
 

NebbyIsBest

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1.7k will be quite a struggle to write in 45 minutes, you'll definitely need to cut 2+ points I'd assume.

Cut P10 --> what you've already got on external stability should be enough
If you can, try to merge P1 and P2, that may help to cut a few words down

Again, if it's an unseen question, make sure you're able to maneuver your practice response in order to properly answer the question.
Thanks for the suggestions, I will try to cut and merge accordingly. If the question ends up being something like "Analyse the effects of inflation and external stability on government policies/the economy" or something similar how would you recommend adapting the essay? Could I still say that inflation leads to changes in MP, which in turn influences external stability (ES) accordingly, and similarly ES leads to changes in FP which influences inflation. And then just write my current MER paragraphs saying that they were a response to inflation/ES? Or do I have to focus on changes in other parts of the economy e.g. eco growth, unemployment, changes for individuals/firms/government due to policies instead?
 

mmmmmmmmaaaaaaa

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The HSC defines an 'Analyse' question as "Identify components and the relationship between them; draw out and relate implications"
Hence, yes, if you are able to link these ideas in such a way that will make sense to the marker (as well as you), then you should do that.
If you are able to link inflation and external stability together (and how they go with macro/micro policies, then there is no reason as to why you shouldn't get top band marks.
Currently, for my assignment, I am doing a question similar (Analyse - external stability)
 

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