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HSC 2016 MX2 Marathon ADVANCED (archive) (4 Viewers)

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Sy123

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

 

Sy123

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

 

RealiseNothing

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Suppose that it is Easter weekend coming up, so that Friday and Monday are both public holidays (i.e. 4 day weekend).

John wants to go to the beach on exactly one day of the long weekend (so Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday).

However he wants to go on the hottest day of the long weekend.

Assuming that John is rational, and that he only finds out the temperature a particular day will be at 9am of the day itself (and so can only decide if he wants to go to the beach at 9am on that day), what is the probability that John goes to the beach on the hottest day as he wants to?

(Assume the temperature on any of the 4 days is completely random and not dependent on other factors such as the previous temperature etc. Also assume the temperature can not be the same on any of the 4 days to avoid ties).
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Suppose that it is Easter weekend coming up, so that Friday and Monday are both public holidays (i.e. 4 day weekend).

John wants to go to the beach on exactly one day of the long weekend (so Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday).

However he wants to go on the hottest day of the long weekend.

Assuming that John is rational, and that he only finds out the temperature a particular day will be at 9am of the day itself (and so can only decide if he wants to go to the beach at 9am on that day), what is the probability that John goes to the beach on the hottest day as he wants to?

(Assume the temperature on any of the 4 days is completely random and not dependent on other factors such as the previous temperature etc. Also assume the temperature can not be the same on any of the 4 days to avoid ties).


 

RealiseNothing

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Pretty much this.

Forget about any physical restrictions on max/min temperatures though. Think of it as say a God just choosing the temperature to be whatever the first number that comes to his mind is (so I guess it would be uniformally distributed).
 

Sy123

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

edit; nvm
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Pretty much this.

Forget about any physical restrictions on max/min temperatures though. Think of it as say a God just choosing the temperature to be whatever the first number that comes to his mind is (so I guess it would be uniformally distributed).
Yeah but wouldn't it need to have a finite max. (and min.) temp.? A uniform distribution on an infinite support doesn't make sense.

I guess you essentially mean that whatever the temperature is on a day, the next day's one (or any other day's one) is equally likely to be above it as below it (and can't equal it).
 
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RealiseNothing

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Yeah but wouldn't it need to have a finite max. (and min.) temp.? A uniform distribution on an infinite support doesn't make sense.

I guess you essentially mean that whatever the temperature is on a day, the next day's one is equally likely to be above it as below it (and can't equal it).
Yep.

I guess you can have a max/min temperature and it won't make a difference I think. I'm not too experienced with distributions, it's more so just from an equally as likely to be higher/lower than the previous day perspective I'm looking for.
 

Sy123

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

This may or may not be completely wrong and/or based on a misinterpretation of the question

------

Pr(John picks the right day) =
Pr(John picks the first day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the second day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the third day, and it is the hottest the third day) +
Pr(John picks the fourth day, and it is the hottest the fourth day)

= 1/4*1/4 + 1/4*1/2 + 1/4*3/4 + 1/4 * 1 = 5/8

At the start of the first day, to him, every day is equally possible for it to be the hottest day, so the probability he picks it is 1/4, and the probability the first is the hottest is 1/4 (non-epistemic)

At the start of the second day, depending on how the first day went, it might be rational for John to not go the second day at all (i.e. if T2 < T1)
Given that John does pick the second day, the probability that it is the hottest is 1/2. This is because:

There are 24 different orderings of temperature (which I will denote by the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, the lower the number the lower the temperature)

(e.g. if the order is: 1, 4, 3, 2, it means that 2nd day is hottest followed by day 3, then day 4 then day 1)

There are 24 = 4! orderings, 12 of these orderings are such that 2nd day is greater than 1, and of these 6 of them are such that 2nd day = 4

Thus 6/12 = 1/2

Similarly for the 3rd day, of the 24 orderings, there are 8 orderings so that the 3rd is the hottest out of the first 3 days
Of these 8, there are 6 that are such that 3rd day is indeed the hottest day,

Thus Pr(3rd is hottest) given John picks 3rd day is 6/8 = 3/4

Similarly for day 4 it is 1

-------
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

This may or may not be completely wrong and/or based on a misinterpretation of the question

------

Pr(John picks the right day) =
Pr(John picks the first day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the second day, and it is the hottest the second day) +
Pr(John picks the third day, and it is the hottest the third day) +
Pr(John picks the fourth day, and it is the hottest the fourth day)

= 1/4*1/4 + 1/4*1/2 + 1/4*3/4 + 1/4 * 1 = 5/8

At the start of the first day, to him, every day is equally possible for it to be the hottest day, so the probability he picks it is 1/4, and the probability the first is the hottest is 1/4 (non-epistemic)

At the start of the second day, depending on how the first day went, it might be rational for John to not go the second day at all (i.e. if T2 < T1)
Given that John does pick the second day, the probability that it is the hottest is 1/2. This is because:

There are 24 different orderings of temperature (which I will denote by the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, the lower the number the lower the temperature)

(e.g. if the order is: 1, 4, 3, 2, it means that 2nd day is hottest followed by day 3, then day 4 then day 1)

There are 24 = 4! orderings, 12 of these orderings are such that 2nd day is greater than 1, and of these 6 of them are such that 2nd day = 4

Thus 6/12 = 1/2

Similarly for the 3rd day, of the 24 orderings, there are 8 orderings so that the 3rd is the hottest out of the first 3 days
Of these 8, there are 6 that are such that 3rd day is indeed the hottest day,

Thus Pr(3rd is hottest) given John picks 3rd day is 6/8 = 3/4

Similarly for day 4 it is 1

-------
 
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InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Your logic is right, but the probability is wrong I think.
I did 1 minus the probability that all 3 of the next days are colder than Day 1 (given that it is Day 1 currently). Is this the wrong way to calculate that probability?
 

RealiseNothing

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

I did 1 minus the probability that all 3 of the next days are colder than Day 1 (given that it is Day 1 currently). Is this the wrong way to calculate that probability?
Wouldn't it just be 1/4 chance that day 1 is the hottest (we have no information on any other days yet), so 3/4 chance that it isn't?

I understand how you got that probability though and now I'm kinda mind-fucked.
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Wouldn't it just be 1/4 chance that day 1 is the hottest (we have no information on any other days yet), so 3/4 chance that it isn't?

I understand how you got that probability though and now I'm kinda mind-fucked.
Lol idk, maybe this is the new Monty Hall haha.

I have a feeling that before Day 1, the chance that Day 1 is hottest is 1/4, but once you know Day 1's temperature on Day 1, it changes to 1/8?? Or maybe this is a problem with having the infinite uniform distribution. Or maybe it's like the Envelope paradox thing. Actually, remembering this paradox, I think the following is true: if the four days' temperatures are fixed beforehand (by an omniscient genie say), then the probability is indeed 3/4. But if they're not fixed and truly can be higher or lower than Day 1 on each later day with 50-50 chance, then the probability should be the one calculated above (0.875).

I think the answer to this problem will be different if we consider the temperature as NOT fixed beforehand (which is how I interpreted it) compared to if they were fixed; haven't thought of it in much detail, this is kinda based on my instinct and the relation to the envelope paradox.
 

RealiseNothing

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Lol idk, maybe this is the new Monty Hall haha.

I have a feeling that before Day 1, the chance that Day 1 is hottest is 1/4, but once you know Day 1's temperature on Day 1, it changes to 1/8?? Or maybe this is a problem with having the infinite uniform distribution. Or maybe it's like the Envelope paradox thing. Actually, remembering this paradox, I think the following is true: if the four days' temperatures are fixed beforehand (by an omniscient genie say), then the probability is indeed 3/4. But if they're not fixed and truly can be higher or lower than Day 1 on each later day with 50-50 chance, then the probability should be the one calculated above (0.875).

I think the answer to this problem will be different if we consider the temperature as NOT fixed beforehand (which is how I interpreted it) compared to if they were fixed, haven't thought of it in much detail, this is kinda based on my instinct and the relation to the envelope paradox.
That's the same instinct I had whilst thinking about why we get two different probabilities. Might look into it a bit more since it seems way more counter-intuitive than even the Monty Hall problem.

When I did this question I was assuming the temperatures were all fixed. Feel free to do it however you want though, I only have the answer (confirmed by other sources too so all good) using the assumption that the temperatures are fixed beforehand however.
 

glittergal96

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Revamping solution (and making some of the inferences more rigorous), had fun writing this







































-----------



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Still not quite right...in your (**) line, substituting z=0 would give p(t)= p(0) + At^qM(0).

Also, there is a deeper problem going wrong in your assumption that p(z)-p(t)=(z^n-t^n)M(z).

Your reasoning (presumably) was that for nonzero t, we obtain n distinct points z (by rotating t according to the assumption of the question) at which p(z)=p(t) and so q(z):=p(z)-p(t) has these n roots. Multiplying them together we get (z^n-t^n) and so (z^n-t^n) divides the polynomial q(z) for each t.
HOWEVER, q(z) depends on the parameter t! This means that the coefficients of the polynomial M obtained by dividing q(z) by the factor (z^n-t^n) will generally depend on t as well as z.

A quick way to see why this answer is incorrect is that taking a=pi in the original question implies that p(z)=p(-z) for all z on the unit circle. As a nonzero polynomial can only have finitely many roots, this is equivalent to the seemingly stronger assertion that p(z)=p(-z) identically on the complex plane...that is p is even.

If your answer was correct, it would imply that the only even polynomials are of the form ax^2 + b.


My method for when a is a rational multiple of pi:





 

glittergal96

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Re: HSC 2016 4U Marathon - Advanced Level

Also note that it is not a significant leap of faith to differentiate polynomials with complex coefficients/domain.

For such objects differentiation can be viewed as a purely formal linear map that sends the monomial

z^n to nz^(n-1).

One can study the relationship of this operator to the properties of a polynomial without having the slightest notion of what calculus was. Eg the proof that we can get the multiplicity of a root of a polynomial by evaluating derivatives at that root.

The cool thing is this extends to polynomials defined in much more abstract settings, where we can't do actual calculus.
 
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