sort of surprising that no one is looking to challenge abbott. i mean he's LOSING ground during a time like this, if that isn't a surefire signal that he is on a tight-rope made purely of the disdain towards labor party i don't know what is. as a liberal strategist you've got to concede that, yes, gillard most likely won't be the leader by the next election, and that the negative stigma is going to be with abbott for a good while. i wouldn't be entirely shocked if someone made a play at the opposition leadership (turnbull?)
sort of surprising that no one is looking to challenge abbott. i mean he's LOSING ground during a time like this, if that isn't a surefire signal that he is on a tight-rope made purely of the disdain towards labor party i don't know what is. as a liberal strategist you've got to concede that, yes, gillard most likely won't be the leader by the next election, and that the negative stigma is going to be with abbott for a good while. i wouldn't be entirely shocked if someone made a play at the opposition leadership (turnbull?)
A few people I know in the liberals have all told me that Abbott is in an unusual position of safety because of a lack of other leadership talent from the dry faction of the coalition. (although less formal the liberals are essentially divided into two factions) After 2007 the wets and dry's were almost evenly balanced and that's why we saw such close ballots first I think Nelson beat Turnbull by 2 votes, then Turnbull beat Nelson by five votes then Abbott beat Turnbull by one vote. In 2007 there was John Howard, Alexander Downer, Brendan Nelson and Tony Abbott occupying senior ministries from the dry's, while from the wets there was Costello, Bishop and Turnbull basically. Post 2007 as Howard, Downer, Costello and Nelson have all departed their senior positions have been assumed almost entirely by wets, Hockey, Morrison, Pyne(although Pyne often votes with the dry's) and Hunt are all from the moderate wing.
Most of the new dry's are callow, newish MP's without much stature or gravitas, the exception being Andrew Robb who is not well regarded as a viable leadership contender. So Abbott is virtually unrivaled as leader of the dry's. As you might have expected from Abbott's campaign at the last election, most of the seats the coalition picked up had more socially conservative, economic rationalist, strayan values sort of dry Liberals as the candidate and as such the dry's now have a ten seat buffer thereabouts over the wets in caucus. Believe you me there is a fair chunk of the Liberals who can hardly stand Abbott and are trying to massage some of the more pliable dry's but with Abbott so comfortably ahead in the polls and Turnbull being so unabashedly progressive and urbane, the dry's have no interest in budging. I believe if Turnbull can be persuaded to stand aside (and I don't think he can) you may see Hockey or Morrison mount a challenge against Abbott at some point, they are both personally liked by the dry's in contrast to Turnbull.
