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Must read guide for those seeking an ATAR estimate (1 Viewer)

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enoilgam

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Inspired by powlmao’s similar thread on the subject and in response to the increasing amount of ATAR estimates on this site, I have decided to put together a guide for all those seeking an estimate.

What information do I need to provide for an estimate?

Necessary information

1)Your subject ranks (NOT your raw percentages)

2)Your school rank

An estimate cannot be made without these two pieces of information. The reason for this is as follows:

Your subject rankings:
Ranks are what will be used to calculate your internal marks. Your raw internal percentages don’t really mean much, as they are moderated according to your ranks and external results. For more on the minutiae of moderation, see the Board of Studies explanation of the process here: http://www.boardofstudies.nsw.edu.au/hsc-results/moderation.html. Also, this might seem like a no-brainer, but put how many people are in each of your subjects - 2nd out of 10 is different to 2nd out of 60.

Your school rank:
School rank is needed as it helps us put your marks into perspective. For example, a person coming first in Extension 1 maths at James Ruse is probably going to state rank in the subject, whereas a person coming first in this subject at a school ranked 400th in the state will probably only get a band 5.

Other information which can help but is NOT necessary:

- Trial marks
- ATAR statistics from your school
- How many people at your school get over 90 in each subject
- School ranks from more than one year
- Any other information you think is pertinent

Trial marks: Trial marks can help give us an idea of how strong you are in the subject, as they match the format of your final exams. Trial marks in science and especially maths subjects are extremely useful; as marking standards are usually consistent from school to school (your answers are generally right or wrong). However, for English and humanities subjects, they are less useful, as marking standards can vary from school to school. This is because often times, some school markers (who are not HSC markers), are unaware of what exactly the HSC markers are looking for, and mark with different standards, which reduces the usefulness of these trial marks. However, if you have them they are still worth providing.

ATAR statistics from your school:
This includes information like the highest ATAR from your schools previous cohort, or how many people get over 90. It can also include the median/average ATAR from the previous cohort. This information is more useful for people who go to a low ranking school; as it can help us to see whether your school has outliers who do significantly better than everyone else. However, it is also useful for most other schools as well.

How many people at your school get a band 6 in each subject:
This can help us determine in which subjects you are likely to get a band 6, as it can show us your schools strengths and weaknesses. For instance, my old High school was strong in maths, with about 20% of the cohort getting a band 6 in 2 unit. However, we were weak in English and were lucky to have one person per year get a band 6.

School ranks from more than one year:
This can help show us if your school rank is stable or volatile, which can change the way we estimate

Any other information you think is pertinent:
Put simply, the more information we have the stronger your estimate will be. If you’re not sure whether something is relevant, include it anyway and let us judge whether it is or not.

Reliability of an estimate

An ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. ATAR estimates, whether given on this site or by your school are generally unreliable. The main reasons for this are as follows:

- There is no definitive way of converting ranks and a school rank into an ATAR.
- The school rank is taken from the previous cohort and it’s possible that one cohort will perform better or worse than another. For some schools, there rankings stay stable whilst others can vary significantly.
- Your rankings only apply to your internal marks which count for 50% of the HSC. Some students will do proportionally better in their final exams then they did internally and vice-versa. Obviously, we cannot predict if this will happen

However, despite the fact that they are unreliable, an ATAR estimate can still be of some use. An ATAR estimate can give you a general idea of what you might get based on the information your provide us.

How do estimators come to their estimate?


Generally speaking, most estimators will use your school rank to put your subject ranks into perspective and then arrive at an estimate. They will also take any other information you provide into account. Personally, I use my own ATAR/school ranks, plus the ATAR/school ranks of my friends and others I know to gauge what your ranks/school rank could give you.

Some people convert your ranks into a mark for each subject and put it into an ATAR calculator.

The impact of your school


Your school rank has NO impact on your ATAR, but the strength of your cohort does. This topic is very contentious, and there are other threads on this site which go into detail on it, so I am not going to go into a big spiel about it.

Put simply, the biggest determinant of a student’s ATAR is the student themselves.
Just because you go to a school ranked 500th in the state, doesn’t mean you are doomed to a poor ATAR – there are many users on this site who went to poor ranking schools and have done extremely well.

Low ranked school estimates


Generally speaking, estimates from low ranking schools (ranked under 450) are much more difficult to do than others. This is mainly because the average ATAR of such schools varies quite a bit and little is known about how they perform. Also some have outliers who do extremely well whilst with others have people sitting on above average ATAR’s (80’s).

If you are coming first in most of your subjects, you will often get a broad estimate accompanied by the line “it depends on the externals”. This is because as you are coming first in many subjects, your marks will be determined by your externals (if you read the attached link, you will note that the person who comes first internally gets the highest external mark as their internal).

Who gives the best estimates?


As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. Don’t limit yourself to getting an estimate from one person/user. Getting a wide variety of opinions from different users will net you the best result.

Another important point to remember is that a school estimate is no more reliable than an estimate from this site (in my opinion, we are better at it then most schools, but that is another issue). The school doesn’t have a magic method of getting your ATAR, as their method is similar to ours. So if you have a school estimate, don’t give it more value than one from this site.

ATAR calculators


ATAR calculators deal in final marks so putting in your raw percentages is useless and will get you nowhere. The calculators are only useful on the day before the ATAR’s are released and to see what final marks are needed for approximately what ATAR.

Conclusion/other information


As mentioned before, an ATAR estimate is just that, an estimate. If your estimate is lower then you expected, don’t get disheartened and give up, because our estimates are far from accurate or absolute. Last year, there was one person who asked for an estimate, and got a consensus opinion (including me) of low 80’s. She ended up getting somewhere in the mid-90’s.

By the same token, don’t become complacent if your estimate is better than you expected – one person last year PM’d me for an estimate and I said something that was a lot higher than what they expected. They replied to me saying “wow that’s so much higher than I expected, I guess that means I can take it easy now”. This attitude is dangerous and will put you in a perilous position.

Also, when making a thread on the topic, try to make it need and tidy so we can clearly see the necessary information and other details. Some threads are messy and it’s difficult to tell what’s what.

If anyone thinks I’ve missed anything, gotten something wrong or missed something in this guide, please feel free to post it below and I will change it as necessary. I have probably forgotten some things so I will probably add to this guide at some point. Also, if anyone has any questions about this guide, please make a post below and I or someone else will get back to you.
 
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passionxmusic

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I hate giving estimates because I do it using a variety of methods and also base them upon similar marks I have heard of and known about. Hence why I always place plus or minus a few points because it's a rough estimate.

But I agree! Anyone seeking ATAR advice should ask around and keep your mind open to the fact that we are just estimating ; so please don't hunt us down coz you were a few marks short of what we 'estimated' for you.

For HSC Students:
- Subject and the marks you have (not wish you had).
- School Rank.
- Individual Subject Rank.

For University Students Planning on Transfer*:
- Your Old ATAR.
- Your current WAM/GPA per semester.
- Which university you plan on transferring to (whether internal or external).

*Some universities will create a new ATAR on the basis of combining 50% of your old score plus 50% of your GPA/WAM or 25% of your old score plus 75% of your GPA/WAM or use your whole GPA/WAM and convert it into a new ATAR.
 
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enoilgam

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where does one find out their school rank?
I'm not really sure - for 2010 there was better education and SMH. For last year there doesnt seem to be much. If someone has a link with the complete 2011 school rankings can they post it in this thread.
 

puneetnanda

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but if i have these two pieces of information: school rank, subject ranks how do i actually get an atar estimate.
i.e. School: Fort Street High School
2011 Rank: 8th
Subjects (so far-cos i'm accelerated):
Mathematics Extension 1: rank 10/130
Mathematics 2 unit: rank 10/120
Chemistry: rank 15/125
 
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mebandal

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Hi everyone!

So I know it's just term 2 for Year 12, but I just want to check and see if I'm getting the marks I need to get the ATAR I want. I'm not too sure about study scores, so if anyone has done my subjects before, could you please tell me what your SAC averages and exam score were in order to achieve the around the study score you had?


Can anyone please help me predict my study scores (& even my ATAR) for this year?

English:
Averaging 85-87% (judging from the people I’ve discussed marks with, I’m probably ranked 9 of a class of 20?)

Literature:
Averaging 85-90% (probably 7 or 8 out of class of 15?)

Legal:
Averaging 88-95% (Ranked 7th out of a class of 21)

History (Revs):
Averaging 86-90% (10th out of 25)


Religion & Society:
Averaging 88-95% (3rd out of 15)


I know it's a bit early, but if you could estimate my study scores for each subject, it would be lots of help.

School Statistics
o All students successfully attained their VCE
o 13.6% of study scores were above 40
o 24% of students attained an ATAR score of 90 and above
o 48% of students attained an ATAR of 80 and above
o College Dux for 2012 had an ATAR score of 99.00
o Three students attained perfect study scores in Art, Biology and English

By the way, my school is ranked in the 70s apparently (71 for last year I think, it’s generally around the 70s).




Thank you!
 

enoilgam

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There have been a lot going around lately, so I just want reinterate that ATAR to ranks estimates can be even more difficult and unreliable then standard estimates.
 

anomalousdecay

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They are pretty unreliable and are only a guide. Iirc back a year ago I got estimates of around 85 but got 96 so yeah there is a big difference between now and later on in the year.
 

seerat

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hi
i really want to know my rough atar estimate
my subjects are
Standard english (i am an average student at english)
General Maths
PDHPE
Business Studies
Physics
Chemistry
i am aiming for 90+ atar
do u think i will be able to achieve it with the subjects i have???
please give me an estimate of the atar????
please also give me an estimate of the marks i will need to get that atar considering i am not very good at english....thanks
 

mcr4333

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Im an Australian year 12 student who lives in NSW... am I still able to get an atar of 70?

I go to Coffs Harbour Senior College and these are my subjects with the marks and ranks i got for the in school 50% of your ATAR:

Senior Science:
- coarse rank = 14/51
- mark = 79%

General Maths:
- Coarse rank = 32/129
- mark = 73%

Legal Studies:
- Coarse rank = 9/22
- Mark = 72%

Business Studies:
- coarse rank = 14/37
- mark = 69%

English Standard:
- coarse rank = 64/124
- mark = 58%

Im hoping to do a Bachelor of Science at Newcastle uni which I need roughly an atar of 65 for (well thats the cut-off point at least). Im hoping to get an atar of 70, though Newcastle uni offers an extra 4 atar points for people who live in my town so i only really need an atar of 61. So pretty much what marks am i going to need to get in the HSC to get an atar of 70 and do you think this is possible for me??
 

ag6858

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Id say your high 70s, maybe even low 80s atm. Just keep doing what your doing and you should be fine. If I had to give an estimate, I'd say 78.5

Sent from my GT-I9000 using Tapatalk 2
 

Carlylover86

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Hi!
I would really appreciate an ATAR estimate, as I really want to get an ATAR of 97 or above, for my course.

SCHOOL RANK ~24TH

English Adv: 35/125
Legal Studies: 12/19
Maths 2u: 45/125
Maths 3u: 95/125 (I know this is really bad, that's why I'm stressing :(
Japanese continuers: 2/3
Physics: 15/75


THANK YOU!
PS: I was wondering if my maths 3u would still count considering im doing so bad (it would be great if it counted because it scales so well compared to legals studies, but i'm not sure judging from the horrible rank im on! is there still a chance?)
 

Green Yoda

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Hi!
I would really appreciate an ATAR estimate, as I really want to get an ATAR of 97 or above, for my course.

SCHOOL RANK ~24TH

English Adv: 35/125
Legal Studies: 12/19
Maths 2u: 45/125
Maths 3u: 95/125 (I know this is really bad, that's why I'm stressing :(
Japanese continuers: 2/3
Physics: 15/75


THANK YOU!
PS: I was wondering if my maths 3u would still count considering im doing so bad (it would be great if it counted because it scales so well compared to legals studies, but i'm not sure judging from the horrible rank im on! is there still a chance?)
95, improve legal
 
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