Why SAM is inaccurate sometimes... (1 Viewer)

~ ReNcH ~

!<-- ?(°«°)? -->!
Joined
Sep 12, 2004
Messages
2,493
Location
/**North Shore**\
Gender
Male
HSC
2005
I was just thinking about why SAM might be inaccurate and I realised why SAM may be spitting out UAIs higher than true UAIs (I'm not sure if my ideas are correct though).

1. Aligned marks are given as whole numbers, which means they are rounded up or down e.g. 44.5 will be reported as 45. So, when you take into account that an 80 may actually be 79.5 and that a 94 might actually be a 94.4, then this could alter the SAM UAI by ~0.05-0.25, thus making it appear either inflated or deflated (once you total up about 5 or 6 subjects)

2. In calculating an HSC mark, an average of the exam mark and assessment marks are taken. But both the exam mark and assessment mark are reported as whole numbers, and may have been rounded up.
As an example, a person gets the following result:

Exam mark: 86 --- Assessment mark: 83 --- HSC mark: 85

If you take into account that 85.5 rounds to 86 and 82.5 to 83 then this could be the real situation (hypothetically):

Exam mark: 85.5 --- Assessment mark: 82.5 --- HSC mark: 84

From this example, you can see that whilst you may think you received 85, if you consider the rounding up of marks, you may only have got 84 - when you do this for about 10-12 units, it could significantly change the UAI that is estimated by SAM.

*Note: it can also work in your favour i.e. if your marks happened to have been rounded down.

Anyway, that's my two cents. But I'll need Lazarus to confirm (or deny) that what I'm saying is actually true.

Btw. I didn't know whether this thread should belong in this section or the SAM section, so mods - feel free to move it :)
 
Last edited:

KeypadSDM

B4nn3d
Joined
Apr 9, 2003
Messages
2,631
Location
Sydney, Inner West
Gender
Male
HSC
2003
I'm guessing UAI's go up because students and teachers are becoming more informed about what the students need to fulfil in their HSC examinations. Not that each year is becoming smarter.
 

AE86

Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
73
Gender
Male
HSC
2004
That's why the syllabus changes in a while.
 

Lazarus

Retired
Joined
Jul 6, 2002
Messages
5,965
Location
CBD
Gender
Male
HSC
2001
Yes, rounding does account for much of the error margin with SAM. :)

Those errors are compounded by the fact that we're forced to estimate (via linear interpolation) the scaled marks corresponding to particular aligned HSC marks.

And then there's a further estimation process when it comes to converting scaled aggregates to UAIs.

It's easy to get it slightly wrong.
 

sped_kid01

FindWhatIsYet2BeFound
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
703
Location
a place where i call home
Gender
Female
HSC
2004
well....when i got my results on friday, i put them straight into SAM, and it gave me uai...

it was correct, minus .03

i would say its rather accurate
 

acmilan

I'll stab ya
Joined
May 24, 2004
Messages
3,989
Location
Jumanji
Gender
Male
HSC
N/A
I dont get it, everytime i put in a set of marks from a 2003 student it usually gives a pretty accurate UAI with a tiny margin of error, sometimes it is spot on. There would obviously be some people who got an estimate way off compared to what they actually got in 2004, but that would be because SAM predicts 2003 UAI not 2004.
 

helper

Active Member
Joined
Oct 8, 2003
Messages
1,183
Gender
Male
HSC
N/A
The scalings are done on the cohort as a whole. As the cohort changes each year, the scaling changes each yeat.
 

~ ReNcH ~

!<-- ?(°«°)? -->!
Joined
Sep 12, 2004
Messages
2,493
Location
/**North Shore**\
Gender
Male
HSC
2005
acmilan said:
I dont get it, everytime i put in a set of marks from a 2003 student it usually gives a pretty accurate UAI with a tiny margin of error, sometimes it is spot on. There would obviously be some people who got an estimate way off compared to what they actually got in 2004, but that would be because SAM predicts 2003 UAI not 2004.
I know this isn't the right thread, but ac did you get in the top 20 for maths?
(I'll delete this post afterwards) :)
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top