Labor Leadership Spill 2012 (2 Viewers)

Lentern

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#Newspoll Gillard: Approval 26 (-6) #auspol
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol
#Newspoll Abbott: Approval 31 (-5) Disapproval 57 (+5) #auspol
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-1) Abbott 38 (-2) #auspol
 

Rafy

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My that seems quite counterintuitive.

I notice the polls frequently act like that during leadership battles. They don't necessarily cause a fall in the primary of the party concerned.
 

Lentern

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My that seems quite counterintuitive.

I notice the polls frequently act like that during leadership battles. They don't necessarily cause a fall in the primary of the party concerned.
Possum speculates Labor may have a slight bounce because some people think Rudd might be leading them tomorrow.
 

Rafy

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I imagine Labor is being helped by having Rudd prominently in the media again. Some in the public thinking he may return?

Still expect the party's numbers to fall back when the party rejects him again.
 

Lentern

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I imagine Labor is being helped by having Rudd prominently in the media again. Some in the public thinking he may return?


Still expect the party's numbers to fall back when the party rejects him again.
Probably. While I wouldn't suggest they had any intention to do it what its also done is allowed Labor to seize control of the news cycle which, if Rudd should by some miracle be re-elected tomorrow, make for a very good few weeks of Labor polling.

Above all, these things don't follow strict rules. It could be by and large people are fed up and annoyed by the spill and by chance Newspoll got 1200 people unusually sympathetic towards labor.
 

Lentern

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kevin rudd's plea to the labor caucus
Meticulous planning
Tenacity spanning
Decades of denial
is simply why I'll
Be king undisputed
respected, saluted
and seen for the wonder i am
 

Rafy

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Phillip Coorey ‏ @PhillipCoorey
Gillard wins 73 29
 

Lentern

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I hope whoever leaked the result of the confidential special meeting of caucus are punished accordingly.
 

Garygaz

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hmm beginning to think it may have been better if rudd let gillard fire him.
 

Lentern

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hmm beginning to think it may have been better if rudd let gillard fire him.
I agree with what Michael Rowland said, Rudd would have needed to get less than three votes for this to stamp out his second bid later in the year. Sure an extra ten or fifteen votes for Rudd would have been better for him but there should be no delusions about his campaign ever having been about caucus support. If he had been serious about courting votes from caucus he wouldn't have used surprise tactics press conferences from the United States, he would not have had Bruce Hawker acting as his defacto spokesperson while he was on a plane. His strategy is to effectively wave polling in the face of caucus and dared them to ignore it, they have as we all expected, now it will be about him delivering upon his threat. He's a former prime minister with no cabinet bonds to loyalty or secrecy now, he will be hitting Qanda, Sunrise, (maybe not Insiders) and he will choose his appearances at the most awkward moments (budget week perhaps) and it will bury Gillard's vote.


That being said his next campaign will be more subtle. He will dial down the rhetoric about faceless men, he will start looking for some factional backing, promising senior ministries etc. The next (and final) challenge will be a more conventional struggle between two uncomfortably strung together alliances of factions and mavericks, it will be under the specter of a general election looming on the horizon. Will it work? I think it probably will be sufficient to unseat Gillard, the third candidate issue is still very much relevant.
 

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