Federal Senate Possibilities 2011, no DD
This is all assuming Labour preferences the Greens and doesn't fuck around with idiots like Fielding this time. Considering the goings on with him blocking most of their bills - far more than the Greens, I think that's a safe assumption.
Northern Territory (No Nats)
Labour 1
Liberal 1
Greens 0
ACT(No Nats)
ACT if Labour and/or Greens do slightly better than last time:
Labour 1
Liberal 0
Greens 1
ACT if Greens or Labour perform the same or worse than last time:
Labour 1
Liberal 1
Greens 0
Most probable scenario: The Liberals are barely holding on as it as with 34.2% last election when quota is 33.3%. Meanwhile Greens got 21.5% last election and that was before they formed government in the recent ACT state election, so expect further Greens gains.
Labour 1
Greens 1
Tasmania (No Nats)
Tasmania if Greens do well and Labour doesn't:
Labour 2
Liberal 2
Greens 2
Tasmania if Greens do well but so does Labour:
Labour 3
Liberal 2
Greens 1
Most probable scenario: The Greens need 28.5% for 2 seats. They had 18.2% last time and by now will be well above 20%. 28.5% is a big ask, but if Labour falters, they may well be high enough to take Labour's preferences and win another seat, instead of vice versa.
Labour 3
Liberal 2
Greens 1
SA (No Nats
Fairly cut and dry: it's almost impossible for the Greens not to win a seat here on their own support, Xenophon support, and Labour prefs. The lack of Xenophon running here (he may run somebody, but they will fail because they're not him and he's not a party) means Labour will get an extra seat compared to last time.
Labour 3
Liberal 2
Greens 1
WA (Nats seperate)
Fairly cut and dry: it's almost impossible for the Greens not to win a seat here on their own support and Labour prefs. Labour is weak here, guarenteeing the Greens a seat instead of and extra one of their own.
Labour 3
Liberal 2
Greens 1
QLD (Nats joint ticket with Libs)
QLD if Labour is behind the Coalition (probably because of a strong Greens)
Labour 2
Greens 1
Coalition 3
QLD if Labour is roughly equal with the Coalition:
Labour 3
Greens 0
Coalition 3
QLD if Labour is squarely ahead of the Coalition:
Labour 3
Greens 0 or 1 depending on how much the Coalition loses by
Coalition 2 or 3 as above
Most probable scenario: Status quo seems likely - weak Coalition and weak Labour, but still slightly too strong for the Greens to gain a seat.
Labour 3
Greens 0
Coalition 3
NSW (Nats joint ticket with Libs)
NSW if Labour is behind the Coalition (probably because of a strong Greens):
Labour 2
Greens 1
Coalition 3
NSW if Labour is roughly equal with the Coalition:
Labour 3
Greens 0
Coalition 3
NSW if Labour is squarely ahead of the Coalition:
Labour 3
Greens 1
Coalition 2
Likely scenario: Hard to tell. State Labour might hurt Federal Labour here, while they've certainly boosted the Greens. A Green seat is very likely but not guarenteed.
Labour 2
Greens 1
Coalition 3
Vic (Nats joint ticket with Libs)
Vic if Labour is behind the Coalition (probably because of a strong Greens)
Labour 2
Greens 1
Coalition 3
Vic if Labour is roughly equal with the Coalition and Family First pref Liberals:
Labour 2
Greens 1 if Family First pref Liberal
Coalition 3 if Family First pref Liberal
Vic if Labour is roughly equal with the Coalition and Family First pref Labour:
Labour 3
Greens 0 if Family First pref Labour
Coalition 3 if Family First pref Labour
Vic if Labour is squarely ahead of the Coalition and FF pref Liberals:
Labour 3
Greens 1
Coalition 2
Vic if Labour is squarely ahead of the Coalition and FF pref Labour:
Labour 3
Greens 1
Coalition 2
Likely scenario: Hard to tell. Pretty much every scenario contradicts all the others. At a guess I'd say:
Labour 3
Greens 1
Coalition 2
Australia-Wide Total
2011 probable Senate seats:
Coalition 15
Labour 18
Greens 5
2007 Senate seats:
Coalition 18
Labour 18
Greens 3
Xenophon 1
2011 Total:
Coalition 33
Labour 36
Greens 8
Xenophon 1
Today's Senate:
Coalition 37
Labour 32
Greens 5
Xenophon 1
Fielding 1
Seats needed for total control of Senate:
76/2 + 1 = 39
Phew, Labour wouldn't have total dominance of the Senate. Let's suppose Labour performs exceptionally in every state... even then Labour could get at most 38 seats. Seems we're safe from Labour torpedoing legislation through at least till 2014, if ever.