Australian Politics (5 Viewers)

Iron

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Beazley of the Coalition! Beazley of the Coalition!
Oh cmon!
How's it feel you bastards!
 

impervious182

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Trefoil said:
I suppose of were a fan of how jolly old Howard handled the Tampa incident, too, alexbores?
I bet you do, you seem to do a lot of 'supposing' and little fact checking though. How about you address the content I already gave, instead of trying to undermine peoples' positions with novel subject changes and extremist drivel.
 

Trefoil

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alexdore993 said:
I bet you do, you seem to do a lot of 'supposing' and little fact checking though. How about you address the content I already gave, instead of trying to undermine peoples' positions with novel subject changes and extremist drivel.
I would think that if anybody was an extremist it would be the person who thinks global warming is a conspiracy, evolution is fake, the LHC is going to destroy us all, illegal refugees deserve no compassion, and that hermaphrodites shouldn't be recognised under law because "god only created Adam and Eve", as you put it.

Rafy said:
Newspoll: 59-41 2PP

Turnbull really couldn't have become leader at a worse time.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24771879-601,00.html
Christ almighty. Rudd's getting the same level of support as Obama - except more than a year into his term!

Good to see Greens support hovering around 10%. A comfortable increase from 8% in 2007.

The National party looks set to die and be cannibalised by all three major parties (Liberal, Greens, Labour - probably in that order). I wonder, will that make room for Greens seats in the House?

Interesting level of third party support (the 7% dip seems an outlier). Hopefully that doesn't mean more Family First senate seats...
 

impervious182

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Trefoil said:
Christ almighty. Rudd's getting the same level of support as Obama - except more than a year into his term!

Good to see Greens support hovering around 10%. A comfortable increase from 8% in 2007.

The National party looks set to die and be cannibalised by all three major parties (Liberal, Greens, Labour - probably in that order). I wonder, will that make room for Greens seats in the House?

Interesting level of third party support (the 7% dip seems an outlier). Hopefully that doesn't mean more Family First senate seats...
Too bad Rudd's not so popular amongst his staff, because of his foul temper.

40% of his new staff have quit ,and 50% of Gillard's. It won't take long for the public to get over the gift-money that they've just been given and realise that the government, under Labor, is again in deficit and the economy heading towards an avoidable recession. Just announced today; it's predicted the farm industry will be the only one not to go into recession.
 

Lentern

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Iron said:
Beazley of the Coalition! Beazley of the Coalition!
Oh cmon!
How's it feel you bastards!
Now you're getting it, although one could well say the Beazley of the Coalition was Andrew Peacock...Or Billy Snedden, and that the Bill Snedden of the labor party was not Kim Keazley but Bill Hayden. The way the coalition is chewing through potential prime ministers is astonishing. On November 25th 2007 I would have thought that if the climate was right there were about half a dozen libs that could put away an incumbent prime minister if they ran a decent campaign, Yet pretty much Costello is the only one still standing, and nobody is quite sure whether or not he wants it.

My theory about first term governments would mean Costello is probably finished as well. I can't imagine how he could manage to stay on for another term in opposition after all he's said. Nelson lurking on the backbenches means he probably plans to have a second go at some point, but I doubt the party would give it to him. Hockey might have the luckiest run he could have imagined:

The year is 2012, Turnbull, Costello, Nelson and Bishop are all ruined, The party doesn't want Abbott, so a party turns its lonely eyes to the last man standing. Rudd's sing song verbosity is begining to wear a bit thin, as is Swanny's intellectual grunting and Gillard's childish rants. Hockey is genial and polite like he has shown he can be when it suits him, he is ruthless when the government makes a mistake and with all the alternative leaders gone he is very secure in his position. Rudd has a fight on his hands, he doesn't have the gumption to beat Hockey someone says, we need someone more direct, straight talking, Smith is still relatively popular, suddenly Rudd's job security is undermined by his foreign minister. Lindsay Tanner retires, labor loses the by-election to the greens, one by one state labor governments have been falling, it's just Kevin Rudd and Mike Rann left, the momentum is against him, a government in crisis...

That's the kind of narrative that will be written, but the truth is if the coalition can mount a strong campaign in 2013 they should win, there will be a lot of post hoc blame game and accolades for the opposition but most government changes are of the drovers dog variety. Don't write Rudd off just yet though, oppositions tend to do stupid things when they see and opportunity, if John Hewson and Mark Latham both managed to contest federal elections then surely Tony Abbott isn't that wide a chance?
 

jb_nc

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alexdore993 said:
Too bad Rudd's not so popular amongst his staff, because of his foul temper.

40% of his new staff have quit ,and 50% of Gillard's. It won't take long for the public to get over the gift-money that they've just been given and realise that the government, under Labor, is again in deficit and the economy heading towards an avoidable recession. Just announced today; it's predicted the farm industry will be the only one not to go into recession.
OMG NOT A DEFICIT
 

Lentern

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alexdore993 said:
Too bad Rudd's not so popular amongst his staff, because of his foul temper.

40% of his new staff have quit ,and 50% of Gillard's. It won't take long for the public to get over the gift-money that they've just been given and realise that the government, under Labor, is again in deficit and the economy heading towards an avoidable recession. Just announced today; it's predicted the farm industry will be the only one not to go into recession.
I seem to remember a lot of public servants got the flick when Howard came into office. He didn't seem to pay for it, moral to the story is I don't think Joe the plumber cares if the pollies are mean to the public servants so long as they get what they want, be it a tax cut, a computer at school or lower petrol prices.
 

Trefoil

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alexdore993 said:
Too bad Rudd's not so popular amongst his staff, because of his foul temper.

40% of his new staff have quit ,and 50% of Gillard's.
Actually, if you bother to comprehend what you read, it's because they work them too hard, not because of temper.

Personally I think that's wonderful. You're left with hard-working, loyal staff and stronger party unity.

It won't take long for the public to get over the gift-money that they've just been given
Oh, it won't? Really?

and realise that the government, under Labor, is again in deficit
Myself and spiny norman pulled you up on this before: deficit is a non-partisan thing (both politically and in Australia's history).

In fact, any leader not willing to go into deficit during an economic crash is not fit to lead (Turnbull), as any economist will explain to you.

and the economy heading towards an avoidable recession.
a) We aren't in recession yet, and probably won't be because of this economic stimulus you just earlier derided.
b) If it's avoidable, then why are you complaining about the fact that Rudd has avoided it so far?
c) If stimulus doesn't work, then it's not avoidable... which political party is in power makes no difference in that case. It is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. You don't just glide over those easily.

Still, considering Turnbull's plans have mostly consisted of telling Rudd that a deficit isn't needed and that he's spending too much on stimulus, I shudder to think how much worse off we'd be right now if he was in power.
 
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Lentern

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alexdore993 said:
Intentionally. lol. Yeah, on that issue I agree with you.



Yes. Hopefully they will get it right. :D

Erm... but yeah, I don't know if the government are in touch or not. The problem is that government's need to make tough decisions and Rudd is not willing to do this. Partly because he has no really, strong values and beliefs of his own. I know this sounds vague, but the truth is, that Rudd is constantly doing backflips on issues - even climate change, Indigenous policies etc. etc..
Don't worry, by the end of his premiership Rudd will be viewed as the hardnosed, conviction politician, unafraid to sacrifice his popularity for the sake of doing what he believes is right, people will look back and say when he came into office he knew exactly what his vision for Australia was and come hell or high water he was going to see it through.

Those of us with vivid memories will listen to this and think "that ain't right", but post hoc narratives are a jouranlists favourite past time. We've all heard that Howard knew exactly what he wanted to do in government, he did unpopular things because he believed them to be right, the moment he entered the PM's office he was setting his plans for the nation into motion. Yet wind back the clock to 1997, Paul Kelly in the Australian wrote

"During the 1980s there was an orthodoxy about Howard - that he was the reforming spearhead of the Coalition, but weak on politics. Yet the orthodoxy today is more likely to be the reverse that Howard is an adept politician with doubts about his ability to implement genuine change."

Geoff Kitney for the Herald
"[Howard] is learning, mainly by the mistakes he and some of his ministers have made, that international policy is vitally important to Australia's future."

And Shaun Carey for the age:
"[They can either work hard or take] the course that John Howard took. That was to convert most policies into platitudes and let the incumbent Government slowly starve itself of energy and oxygen. But that took 13 years."

Surely not John Howard? He was a conviction politician.
 

impervious182

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Your arguments are so non-sensical that I almost can't be bothered to rebut them, with the knowledge that I'll just recieve more diatribe back, which is equally as non-sensical.

Trefoil said:
Actually, if you bother to comprehend what you read, it's because they work them too hard, not because of temper.
No, actually that's not true. Numerous staff have complained about Rudd's temper, here's just one example though, of Rudd behind-the-scenes:

Rudd branded a 'foul-mouthed MP'

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's pristine image is about to be blown away with the release of a new book which claims he is foul-mouthed and launches into expletive-ridden rants in his office when things go wrong.

Author Dr Peter van Onselen says Mr Rudd is more complex than the church-going politician Australians see in public.

He told News Ltd the PM is known for his vile temper, is "somewhat of a potty-mouth" behind closed doors and uses the f-word in private.

Dr van Onselen says there are two Kevin Rudds -- the smooth talking public operator and the private one that only his staff get to see.

The claims are made in the book `Howard's End', which looks at the unravelling of John Howard's coalition government and the rise of Mr Rudd.


Trefoil said:
Myself and spiny norman pulled you up on this before: deficit is a non-partisan thing (both politically and in Australia's history).
And last time, I recall contradicting you, to the point where you refused to reply with any substance, unless meaningless platitudes suddenly count as that.

Trefoil said:
In fact, any leader not willing to go into deficit during an economic crash is not fit to lead (Turnbull), as any economist will explain to you.
Personally, I think it would depend on the situation Trefoil. That's something any economist would tell you, but again, that's not the point.

I didn't say it was bad of Rudd to go into deficit, because admittedly, he had no choice. What I said was, it's going to backfire on him in the future with voters.

That's why Swan and Rudd went to such great lengths to avoid saying that 'd word'. It's because as soon as voters hear the words 'Labor' and 'deficit' together, they automatically sigh and tick the Liberal box.

When the money is gone and the government is struggling financially and failing to implement any meaningful new policy, that's when the Liberals will step in, with their record of solid economic management and push Labor out of power.


Trefoil said:
a) We aren't in recession yet, and probably won't be because of this economic stimulus you just earlier derided.
I'll repeat what I wrote:

"Just announced today; it's predicted the farm industry will be the only one not to go into recession." Here's an article on it, Trefoil:
Economists sound recession warning

"Economists have declared the non-farm economy is heading into recession after a National Australia Bank (NAB) monthly survey found business confidence is at a record low.


The NAB index dropped one point in November to a new low of negative-30 as forward orders fell to 1991 levels.


Confidence is down across all industries and all sectors apart from mining and transport are reporting their actual business conditions worsened last month.

NAB chief economist Alan Oster now says the total economy will contract this quarter."



Trefoil said:
b) If it's avoidable, then why are you complaining about the fact that Rudd has avoided it so far?
Hahaha... misunderstanding my words again.

Rudd has made vital errors in his economic management to date, and the steps he has taken, the ones which have worked, were already suggested by the opposition under Turnbull as well!!!!! So don't bullshit about Rudd avoiding recession single-handedly and being a great economic manager, when anyone with half a brain has been suggesting the same moves. i.e. stimulus packages to increase liquidity etc.

What Turnbull warned however, was that Rudd shouldn't guarantee all bank deposits for all banks. Rudd ignored that and it was a completely stupid decision. That move hurt confidence in the economy severely and took away the competitive edge of larger banks.


Trefoil said:
c) If stimulus doesn't work, then it's not avoidable... which political party is in power makes no difference in that case. It is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. You don't just glide over those easily.
Look stop being alarmist, as John Howard aptly suggested, it's alarmist to keep comparing this with the Great Depression because the reality is that this depression will not lower living standards the way the GD did, because they have markedly increased since 1929.

What's more Trefoil. If this stimulus doesn't work, that doesn't necessarily mean that the recession would have been unavoidable. It means that this exact stimulus package was not effective.

It might surprise you to know, that there are different types of stimulus packages and not all of them will have the same effects. Whether or not this package is successful will depend, partially, on whether the families and individuals who recieved dough actually end up spending it quickly, as Rudd has asked and whether the states use the money they recieved quickly as well.

Trefoil said:
Still, considering Turnbull's plans have mostly consisted of telling Rudd that a deficit isn't needed and that he's spending too much on stimulus, I shudder to think how much worse off we'd be right now if he was in power.
Erm... no he's just being a clever politician, reminding voters of the fact, that Labor deficits are never temporary. He's trying to sow the seeds for an election victory, and he's hardly undermined economic confidence as Swan and Rudd did in the early days of this economic crisis.

What's more, Turnbull did say Rudd was spending too much on the stimulus, but also that the stimulus should be directed at other more effective areas. It's impossible to now know if he was correct in suggesting what he did, or if Rudd was. Again, it will depend on whether or not those who have been given money, actually spend it quickly and hence increase liquidity in the economy.

I've bolded your drivel, by the way. It's impossible to know where we would be if he were not in power, however without doubt, the early mistakes Rudd made would not have occurred. His performance has been mediocre at best; he's been pushed along by competant advisors and a competant opposition.
 

jb_nc

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hey slidey stop replying to alexdores then no one will have to see him post

if you want an ignore script for greasemonkey, i'll upload it so it just removes his posts entirely rather than saying "this user is ignored"
 
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impervious182

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jb_nc said:
hey trefoil stop replying to alexdores then no one will have to see him post

if you want an ignore script for greasemonkey, i'll upload it so it just removes his posts entirely rather than saying "this user is ignored"
Can you upload one for me?

I think Trefoil can give very good arguments at times, other times he resorts to insulting people because he can't think of a rebut.

You however, jb_nc are almost always stupid and I've never seen you contribute effectively to any discussion. As a result, it would be useful, if I could just ignore you completely.
 

jb_nc

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i think hes replied to this thread idk

who cares what he has to say anyway. im pretty sure his computer chair is a dildo which hes convinced himself is john howards cock

edit: dont quote him btw or i won't be able to see what you've posted.
 

Iron

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Haha alexdore's owning yall. I'm starting to like the scamp
Just get rid of that hideous dog in your DP
 

Trefoil

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jb_nc said:
hey slidey stop replying to alexdores then no one will have to see him post

if you want an ignore script for greasemonkey, i'll upload it so it just removes his posts entirely rather than saying "this user is ignored"
Cheers. Gimme a link to the greasemonkey addon, too.
 

Trefoil

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Lentern said:
Now you're getting it, although one could well say the Beazley of the Coalition was Andrew Peacock...Or Billy Snedden, and that the Bill Snedden of the labor party was not Kim Keazley but Bill Hayden. The way the coalition is chewing through potential prime ministers is astonishing. On November 25th 2007 I would have thought that if the climate was right there were about half a dozen libs that could put away an incumbent prime minister if they ran a decent campaign, Yet pretty much Costello is the only one still standing, and nobody is quite sure whether or not he wants it.

My theory about first term governments would mean Costello is probably finished as well. I can't imagine how he could manage to stay on for another term in opposition after all he's said. Nelson lurking on the backbenches means he probably plans to have a second go at some point, but I doubt the party would give it to him. Hockey might have the luckiest run he could have imagined:

The year is 2012, Turnbull, Costello, Nelson and Bishop are all ruined, The party doesn't want Abbott, so a party turns its lonely eyes to the last man standing. Rudd's sing song verbosity is begining to wear a bit thin, as is Swanny's intellectual grunting and Gillard's childish rants. Hockey is genial and polite like he has shown he can be when it suits him, he is ruthless when the government makes a mistake and with all the alternative leaders gone he is very secure in his position. Rudd has a fight on his hands, he doesn't have the gumption to beat Hockey someone says, we need someone more direct, straight talking, Smith is still relatively popular, suddenly Rudd's job security is undermined by his foreign minister. Lindsay Tanner retires, labor loses the by-election to the greens, one by one state labor governments have been falling, it's just Kevin Rudd and Mike Rann left, the momentum is against him, a government in crisis...

That's the kind of narrative that will be written, but the truth is if the coalition can mount a strong campaign in 2013 they should win, there will be a lot of post hoc blame game and accolades for the opposition but most government changes are of the drovers dog variety. Don't write Rudd off just yet though, oppositions tend to do stupid things when they see and opportunity, if John Hewson and Mark Latham both managed to contest federal elections then surely Tony Abbott isn't that wide a chance?
I disagree.

To quote some random berk in a blog:

The strange thing is that Turnbull still has high personal approval ratings for an Opposition Leader with only a 19% PPM. That suggests that the punters actually like Turnbull, although they like Rudd even more. Given the grisly alternatives, this suggests that the Libs should stick with Turnbull.
 

Rafy

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It does not matter who the leader is. Leadership is not the problem. There is a financial crisis. Crises/wars etc always produce a spike in support for the incumbent (Unless of course the incumbent is to blame). The Libs just need to ride it out.
 

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