LABOR has edged closer to winning government without releasing a single new policy or causing any shift in public opinion.
In new figures that will send a shiver down the spines of Coalition strategists, veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras shows that the swing required for Labor to unseat the Howard Government at the 2007 federal election has dropped from 4.4 per cent to 3.3 per cent.
The slimmed-down margin is the result of recent redistribution proposals from the Australian Electoral Commission affecting Queensland and New South Wales.
Mackerras's calculations also confirm that one of the biggest losers is millionaire banker Malcolm Turnbull.
Mr Turnbull fought a war of attrition against sitting Liberal MP Peter King to gain preselection for the safe eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth in 2004, but now sees his margin cut from 5.5 per cent to 2.6 per cent.
Wentworth leaps from 21st on the list of marginal Coalition seats to sixth.
The redistribution proposals are designed to compensate for the drift of population northwards by increasing the number of Queensland seats from 28 to 29 and reducing the number of NSW seats from 50 to 49.
When Mackerras releases his "pendulum" for the 2007 election, it will show that the new "median seat" - the least marginal Coalition seat required to fall for a change of government - will be Eden-Monaro, in rural NSW.
Eden-Monaro is held by Liberal MP Gary Nairn by a margin of 2.2 per cent, but will firm to 3.3 per cent after the redistribution. On the new pendulum, Eden-Monaro becomes the 14th most marginal Coalition seat. A uniform swing of 3.3 per cent would thus wipe out the Coalition's 28-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
On present electoral boundaries, the median seat is John Howard's seat of Bennelong, in northern Sydney. His margin of 4.4 per cent is cut to 4.0 per cent by the redistribution.
The average swing towards Labor over the past four Newspolls has been 4.3 per cent - precisely within the band that, on the new boundaries, would be sufficient to achieve government.
Mackerras, whose analysis is based on individual polling booths, yesterday explained the stronger position for Labor on the basis that "the safest Labor seats are now generally a bit less safe, which means they're not wasting as much vote in safe seats".
Other notable features of the new pendulum will include the shift of the western Sydney seat of Parramatta from the Labor to the Liberal side, while the safe Liberal seat of Macquarie, on Sydney's northwestern outskirts, becomes notionally marginal Labor.
The NSW redistribution abolishes the seat of Gwydir, currently held by retiring Nationals MP and former deputy prime minister John Anderson, while the Queensland redistribution creates a notionally Nationals seat named Wright, after poet Judith Wright.
Mackerras yesterday dismissed the chances of the Coalition succeeding in a protest against the AEC proposal.
"I've looked at it quite closely and I'm struck by just how logical the whole thing is," he said. "It pays no attention to the wishes of powerful people."
