Russia 'goes to war' with Georgia (1 Viewer)

[Slidey]

I'm utterly disgusted by the Russians, though. They've pulled down Georgia's electronic communications networks (including the internet) through hack attacks to silence Georgia during the invasion, and started the invasion as soon as the world was focused on the Olympics.

Fucking Russian land grab.

 

[Snaykew]

Oh, which countries is America trying to annexe?

Yay, another retard trying to use the "It's OK because America does it!" line.

Right, I'm retarded because I recognise that there are two Chinas whereas you either believe that there is only one or think all ethnically Chinese people should gtfo of Taiwan.

And yeh, it's quite fine to exert influence. What's the big problem? I see nothing wrong with it. Sure, the PRC have been a little aggressive in posturing but I've never seen them cross the Strait attempting to invade. It's a reality of global politics.

 

[Slidey]

Right, I'm retarded because I recognise that there are two Chinas whereas you either believe that there is only one or think all ethnically Chinese people should gtfo of Taiwan.

You're retarded because you're trying to claim that it's all OK because "America does it", which is both a) stupid, and b) wrong.

This would be evident if you'd bother to read my posts.

 

[sam04u]

I'm utterly disgusted by the Russians, though. They've pulled down Georgia's electronic communications networks (including the internet) through hack attacks to silence Georgia during the invasion, and started the invasion as soon as the world was focused on the Olympics.

Fucking Russian land grab.

Are you a troll, or are you just retarded? Russia has a right to defend it's citizens. It was Georgia, not Russia that began the hostilities. It was Russia, not Georgia that responded to the cries of it's citizens.

You see the South Ossetians, are not Georgians. They don't want to be a part of Georgia, historically they were not a part of Georgia, etc.

 

[Snaykew]

I'm ok with it because it's what happens in global politics and can't be avoided. Nations exert influence, pure and simple. But of course, you wouldn't want to quote that. That just takes away from the "AMERICA DOES IT SO ITS OK" argument that is all you can come up with.

Now I can agree that they have been aggressive (which you seem to not get), but I don't see the big deal. Wow, the Republic of China has been pressured by the mainland. Big whoop. They haven't invaded (nor can they, due to economical and military consequences) and probably don't want to. The status quo has been kept for 60 years. Their military posturing has done shit all anyway.

 

[sam04u]

Some people, sitting on their computers, don't understand that people have died. Over 2,000 have died. Humans that ceased to exist!
What right does Georgia have? What fucken right do they have to take a human life? Some people JUST DON'T GET THAT!

 

[Admiral Nelson]

I'm utterly disgusted by the Russians, though. They've pulled down Georgia's electronic communications networks (including the internet) through hack attacks to silence Georgia during the invasion, and started the invasion as soon as the world was focused on the Olympics.

Fucking Russian land grab.

Okay, let's just recap the actual events and facts, shall we?

Georgia initiated this conflict during the Olympics by invading South Ossetia. The Russians chose to escalate the conflict, but the Georgians are responsible for the timing.

South Ossetia has been nominally independent for fifteen years now, a fact with the Georgians have respected, if not necessarily liked, for just about as long. Russia, which intervened in South Ossetian independence has told Georgia that aggression against South Ossetia will be responded to harshly.

When Saakashvili came to power in 2004 he increased the military budget over thirty-three fold, from $30 million US to $1 billion US. The Georgians were in the midst of increasing the size of their armed forces six fold in only three years. Georgia has been preparing for this war for a while now. Never mind Saakashvili openly stating he would reincorporate South Ossetia, which what prompted Putin to reaffirm his protection of South Ossetia.

Georgia also tried to join NATO, but was rejected by Germany, the only nation who seemed to understand that Georgia wasn't in the North Atlantic. You see, had Georgia been admitted to NATO, it would have been obliged to use military means against Russia, so let us all thank the Germans here. The point is, this infuriated the Russians terribly.

Now, Georgia attacked South Ossetia knowing the Russians would intervene. Russia gave citizenship to most South Ossetians just to reiterate it's committment, and allow for a Cassus Belli. Russia has been rattling sabres all year, from the testing of the largest conventional bomb ever, to cutting off Ukrainian oil supplies, to selling a myriad of arms to Iran, Russia is trying to re-establish itself as a world superpower. Putin has already stated this, and on the back of petrodollars, it's already on the way.

So, Georgia knew that attacking South Ossetia would make the Russians respond. It also knew that the Russians were looking for a time to stamp their authority and it's power, and wouldn't step down over this. Georgia even partially mobilised during the opening stages of their attack, showing that they knew full well the Russians would respond.

Worst of all, the West can hardly support them. When the West recognised Kosovo to irk Serbia (and therefore Russia), they left this precident wide open. Except, instead of Kosovo, it's South Ossetia, and instead of Serbia, it's Georgia.

So, Russia is following international precidents, to protect it's citizens. Either Saakashvili knows something I don't, or he really expected either Russia to step down or the West to step up, neither of which will or have happened. Georgia's screwed itself over.

 

[Slidey]

I'm ok with it because it's what happens in global politics and can't be avoided. Nations exert influence, pure and simple. But of course, you wouldn't want to quote that. That just takes away from the "AMERICA DOES IT SO ITS OK" argument that is all you can come up with.

Actually, I didn't quote that because it's pure bollocks. Equivalent to "Politics is politics so there's no point trying to change it." It's illogical because there's no single 'politics', and it's like saying there's no point opposing Russia's occupation of Georgia or America's occupation of Vietnam. Yeah, great work.

Politics is extremely vast and malleable and "unavoidable" is the last word I think any sane person should use to describe it accurately.

I also disagree with your implicit notion that expansionism and imperialism are 'natural' or 'acceptable' in politics, as post-WW2 and post-Cold-War Europe show. They are certainly not desirable, which I hope you can, at the least, agree with.

Now I can agree that they have been aggressive (which you seem to not get), but I don't see the big deal. Wow, the Republic of China has been pressured by the mainland. Big whoop. They haven't invaded (nor can they, due to economical and military consequences) and probably don't want to. The status quo has been kept for 60 years. Their military posturing has done shit all anyway.

Does this make it OK for China to act in this way? Because you've basically been taking issue with me taking issue with China's aggression.

 

[Snaykew]

Actually, I didn't quote that because it's pure bollocks. Equivalent to "Politics is politics so there's no point trying to change it." It's illogical because there's no single 'politics', and it's like saying there's no point opposing Russia's occupation of Georgia or America's occupation of Vietnam. Yeah, great work.

Politics is extremely vast and malleable and "unavoidable" is the last word I think any sane person should use to describe it accurately.

I also disagree with your implicit notion that expansionism and imperialism are 'natural' or 'acceptable' in politics, as post-WW2 and post-Cold-War Europe show. They are certainly not desirable, which I hope you can, at the least, agree with.



Does this make it OK for China to act in this way? Because you've basically been taking issue with me taking issue with China's aggression.

Who said anything about imperialism? Influence is what I'm talking about. Not conquering other nations and annexing them.

Also I only took up issue with you on your failure to differentiate the two Chinas. I don't care about the rest.

 

[Slidey]

Okay, let's just recap the actual events and facts, shall we?

Georgia initiated this conflict during the Olympics by invading South Ossetia. The Russians chose to escalate the conflict, but the Georgians are responsible for the timing.

South Ossetia has been nominally independent for fifteen years now, a fact with the Georgians have respected, if not necessarily liked, for just about as long. Russia, which intervened in South Ossetian independence has told Georgia that aggression against South Ossetia will be responded to harshly.

When Saakashvili came to power in 2004 he increased the military budget over thirty-three fold, from $30 million US to $1 billion US. The Georgians were in the midst of increasing the size of their armed forces six fold in only three years. Georgia has been preparing for this war for a while now. Never mind Saakashvili openly stating he would reincorporate South Ossetia, which what prompted Putin to reaffirm his protection of South Ossetia.

Georgia also tried to join NATO, but was rejected by Germany, the only nation who seemed to understand that Georgia wasn't in the North Atlantic. You see, had Georgia been admitted to NATO, it would have been obliged to use military means against Russia, so let us all thank the Germans here. The point is, this infuriated the Russians terribly.

Now, Georgia attacked South Ossetia knowing the Russians would intervene. Russia gave citizenship to most South Ossetians just to reiterate it's committment, and allow for a Cassus Belli. Russia has been rattling sabres all year, from the testing of the largest conventional bomb ever, to cutting off Ukrainian oil supplies, to selling a myriad of arms to Iran, Russia is trying to re-establish itself as a world superpower. Putin has already stated this, and on the back of petrodollars, it's already on the way.

So, Georgia knew that attacking South Ossetia would make the Russians respond. It also knew that the Russians were looking for a time to stamp their authority and it's power, and wouldn't step down over this. Georgia even partially mobilised during the opening stages of their attack, showing that they knew full well the Russians would respond.

Worst of all, the West can hardly support them. When the West recognised Kosovo to irk Serbia (and therefore Russia), they left this precident wide open. Except, instead of Kosovo, it's South Ossetia, and instead of Serbia, it's Georgia.

So, Russia is following international precidents, to protect it's citizens. Either Saakashvili knows something I don't, or he really expected either Russia to step down or the West to step up, neither of which will or have happened. Georgia's screwed itself over.

It's certainly a case of big bully vs little bully, but you're painting Russia in an unnecessarily kind light. It all seems very much like Russia pining over land they lost in the past.

Thanks for the summary, btw.

 

[Admiral Nelson]

It's certainly a case of big bully vs little bully, but you're painting Russia in an unnecessarily kind light.

It all seems very much like Russia pining over land they lost in the past.

Russia doesn't want to directly control the ex-Soviet states, the time for that would have been the mid-1990's, not now, when half are memebers of the EU/NATO. No, Russia just wants to keep it's sphere of influence, and is fed up with what it sees as the West interfering. The US has been sending arms and training the expanding Georgian army for years now, for example, and the whole missile shield thing.

I'd imagine, Russia would force Georgia to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia (who looks to be getting involved, by the way). South Ossetia would probably vote to join with Russia and maybe Abkhazia too, but that's it.

Russia has 4,000 marines in the Black Sea Fleet readying to invade, most likely at Poti, and 6,000 regulars getting ready to enter Georgia proper. If the rest of the 58th Army comes in, some 100,000 men, then Georgia will suffer a massive loss and be forced to the above terms. If Georgia somehows halts Russia, or international pressure stops Russia at the Georgian border, then I'd imagine a return to the status quo.

I would say almost unequivically that Russia won't be annexing Georgia, it's not in it's best interests at all.

edit: Oh, you're welcome.

 

[Slidey]

Who said anything about imperialism? Influence is what I'm talking about. Not conquering other nations and annexing them.

China's 'need' for Taiwan reads more like imperialism or expansionism than it does a need for influence.

Though I can see why China wants Taiwan, what with it being a highly developed country with a strong economy, a powerful military, and being ideally situated from a geographic defence/expansion point of view.

Also I only took up issue with you on your failure to differentiate the two Chinas. I don't care about the rest.

What? Because calling Taiwan 'China' is silly.

 

[Snaykew]

China's 'need' for Taiwan reads more like imperialism or expansionism than it does a need for influence.

Though I can see why China wants Taiwan, what with it being a highly developed country with a strong economy, a powerful military, and being ideally situated from a geographic defence/expansion point of view.

Not to mention American military hardware to possibly reverse engineer if there was a peaceful reunification.

What? Because calling Taiwan 'China' is silly.

Calling the Republic of China the Republic of China however, is not. They are older than the PRC so

*cheers for the RoC*

 

[Admiral Nelson]

It seems Georgia is "pulling out" of South Ossetia. Whether that means they've left, I don't know. Seems to me more like they're covering the fact they've been routed by the Russians.

Apparently the Russians are too, but considering it seems like they were planning to launch a full scale invasion very soon, I'm not too sure if they are.

EDIT:
Nope, they're not. I doubt we'll see anything less than the incorporation of South Ossetia into the CIS, and a weak Georgia as a result.

 

[katie tully]

ITT: My future husband Ari.

Also, Russia can gtfo.

 

[HNAKXR]

Georgia is begging for a ceasefire
but Russia wont take no for an answer

Mr Cheney said the continuation of violence against Georgia would have serious consequences for Russia's relations with the US, as well as the international community.

But White House officials refused to speculate on what America might do if the Russian military action continued.

:rofl:

 

[Admiral Nelson]

Georgia managed to get itself into a war with Russia, managed to unsurprisingly lose it, and are now complaining the Russians aren't stopping once it's clear they've won.

Do they want to stop for tea too? Perhaps call off the war in low light? Ask for a more visible tank so they can hit it properly?

Anyway, as to what's happening next:

Putin has stated that Georgia has lost the right to rule South Ossetia. So returning to the status quo seems out of the question. An independent South Ossetia is also unlikely as the pro-Russian feelings in South Ossetia are quite strong, and their desire is to unite with their North Ossetian brethren is stronger. The most likely course of action will be that South Ossetia become part of the Ossetian Autonomous Oblast in the CIS.

In regards to Abkhazia, I'm not sure. I don't think there's the drive to join with Russia that there is with South Ossetia. Similarly, I'm not sure Russia exactly wants Abkhazia to join, either. Abkhazia will definitely gain from it's more than passive involvement on the Russian/Ossetian side of the conflict, so I'd assume Georgia would be forced to release it as an independent nation potentially, or a completely autonomous region of Georgia.

There are a few reasons for this. Abkhazia has a working parliament and armed forces, as well as a functioning beaurocratic system, so it's more able to self-govern than South Ossetia. Also, by not incorporating it into Russia, and making it either de-facto independent or properly independent, Russia will leave a festering sore on the Georgian Republic and leave a cassus belli for them in years to come.

So, South Ossetia having a referendum to join Russia, though whether the results are genuine or slightly altered to make it look like more of a landslide or not is unsure, I would assume the result will be an Anschluss with Russia into either a South Ossetian Oblast or more likely part of the Ossetia Oblast. Abkhazia with increased independence, either de-facto or proper independence, with the aim to keep Georgia weak.

That's my guess.

edit:
Of note, it appears that the Russians are entering into undisputed Georgian territory and are reportedly heading for the town of Gori. At the same time over 9,000 troops have entered into Abkhazia. Russia has declared itself ready to begin peace talks, but just when that happens and for how long they will drag the talks out is unknown. I would imagine they'd probably take a bit more territory so that the Georgians will have no leverage whatsoever, and it wouldn't surprise me if they tried to do something about Saakashvili too.

 

[Slidey]

Why exactly does Russia fear Georgia? It seems like a cat being scared of an ant.

 

[katie tully]

Don't trust those pesky Russians.
Yes Georgia shelled Sth Ossetia first, but Russia has definitely gone overboard.

GTFO and concentrate on your starving marvins Russia.

 

[Admiral Nelson]

Why exactly does Russia fear Georgia? It seems like a cat being scared of an ant.

They're not scared at all. Russia is just ruled by a bunch of paranoid oligarchs who are just as distrusting of the West as the West is of them. The Cold War may have nominally finished, but the feeling that were imbued into the current leadership generation on both sides hasn't.

As such, Russia is extremely committed to it's sphere of influence over Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics. As it's watch them go over to the Western camp one by one, it's getting increasingly edgy which is why it's come down so hard on the Georgians. It would be the same if suddenly Mexico and Canada were to go over to the Russian camp after being under American influence for hundreds of years, in that you'd find America doing quite similar things given the opportunity.

Lastly, I think we really ought to thank the Germans here. The Georgians were planning to take South Ossetia for a while, and had they been part of NATO when they did it, the Russians could have potentially been imbroiled with a conflict with NATO, as I'm honestly not sure Russian pride would let it step down one more time. It also scares me that the Georgians were honestly prepared to potentially plunge some of the most powerful nations on Earth into conflict over a region one and a half times the size of Luxemburg with no natural resources to speak of. Nationalism gone wild, I guess.

Oh, and the Ukraine showed it's position by refusing the Russian Black Sea Fleet to dock in Sevastopol, where it is based, for the duration of the war. The former Eastern block is slipping away from Russia, and I don't think it can take many more such slaps in the face from the West before it acts out.