Australian Politics (3 Viewers)

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

It's been a while since the Liberal party has won an opinion poll anywhere in Australia, but here we go: Today's NSW State Newspoll: Liberal 52, Labor 48.


NSW State Newspoll

TPP: Coalition 52, Labor 48
Primaries: ALP 32, Coalition 41, Greens 13, Other 14
Preferred Premier: O’Farrell 39, Iemma 32.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/nswnewspoll-25jun.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23918424-601,00.html

 

[boris]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

The Liberals are popular with me everyday, and thats what counts.

 

[Triangulum]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Giant Douche v Turd Sandwich, state election should be a good one.

I think the libs will win.

too early to predict. iemma will probably not be there in 2011, and i'd say that bazza's chances of being there are probably only about 60%.

 

[Foxodi]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

I choose the Turd Sandwich (liberals right?)

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Antony Green notes that Newspoll stuffed up the 2PP figure because that forgot to take into account Optional Preferential Voting. Minor party votes can and will exhaust at the state level. Real figure is something like 54/46.

 

[Triangulum]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

victoria and queensland polls out today are both 55-45 to Labor.

 

[Muz4PM]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

And after today the Democrats are history (at least for now)

Where to now for the Democrats? They have only one member in all of the Australian parliaments, will they become political history? Or will they make a comeback?

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

They haven't won a senate position since 2001. They died long ago and they ain't coming back. They secceded their position to the Greens.

Last day of the coalition senate majority also.

 

[sweet_as]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

They haven't won a senate position since 2001. They died long ago and they ain't coming back. They secceded their position to the Greens.

Last day of the coalition senate majority also.

Bullshit.

There is still a massive gap in the centre of Australian politics that needs to be filled.

It sure as hell ain't The Greens.

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Gippsland By-election tomorrow. Nationals will likely retain.
Good guides here: 2008 Gippsland By-election and Gippsland by-election preview

Many polls released over the last few days:

State Newspolls
- NSW 52/48 to Coalition
- QLD 55/45 to Labor
- VIC 55/45 to Labor
- WA 54/46 to Labor
- SA 54/46 to Labor

Federal
- Morgan 61/48 to Labor
- Essential Research 59/41 to Labor

 

[Muz4PM]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Polls have just closed in Gippsland, I predict a Nationals retain, with a small swing to them...maybe.

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Smaller booths are in, showing about a 3% swing to the Nats. If the ALP were to win this, you'd expect some sort of swing to them even in the smaller rural booths.
I'm calliing this for the Nationals, with a status quo result or possibly a small swing to them.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13813-213.htm


EDIT: Antony Green has called it for the Nats.

NATIONALS WIN GIPPSLAND

Swing on 19 booths is 5.5%, so it doesn't look like bigger booths will dampen the swing.

 

[Muz4PM]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

A 5% swing to the Nationals would be a welcome present for them, considering that had they lost Gippsland they would only have one federal seat in Victoria left and diminish their voice in the joint party room even further.

 

[JaredR]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

The National Party has declared victory in the Gippsland by-election.

Nationals leader Warren Truss declared candidate Darren Chester the winner of the federal Victorian seat just before 8pm (AEST) Saturday, two hours after polls closed.

At last count Mr Chester had 62.2 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, with 65 per cent of overall votes counted.

Labor candidate Darren McCubbin had 37.8 per cent of the vote.

The early result represents a 6.3 per cent swing to the National Party.

http://news.smh.com.au/national/nationals-claim-victory-in-gippsland-20080628-2yc3.html

 

[Muz4PM]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Antony Green now projects about a 7.3% swing to the Nationals. An excellent result for them as I said earlier. For them to more than double their margin in this seat I think comes down to more than simply local issues and highlights that the lustre has well and truely worn off Kevin Rudd and his government. All the Coalition might need to do now is to find someone who will exploit that a little better...

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Quite an amazing result for the Nationals. Rudd's honeymoon is well and truely over.

 

[Rafy]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Another shocker of a poll for the Iemma government. I can't see Iemma lasting the year.

2PP: Coalition 56, ALP 44
Primaries: Coalition 46, ALP 28

http://www.ozforums.com.au/uploads/21_nswtaverner2906.jpg

Jittery Labor MPs get ready to dump Iemma

 

[Iron]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

NSW Labor is very tired. We had no right to win last year, but did - that was the only point worth celebrating. But the broader view is that the Federation is broken - there has to be some crucial referendums implementing constitutional reform more in line with the US.

Labor's candidate for Gippsland was a joke imo - a giddy school girl. In contrast the National's candidate was surprisingly good. One to keep an eye on.
I find it hard to believe that the performance of the Federal government was very significant. THe Libs also contested for the first time, so that no doubt accounted for a good deal of the swing against Labor

 

[Iron]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

You dont think that there are Liberal voters who would preference Labor aheah of the Nationals?
Wets

 

[Muz4PM]

Re: Australian Politics Chatter Thread

Really, the by-election result was more a rebuff of Kevin Rudd's current governing then it is about the suitability of Chester or McCubbin. Whilst the profile of Chester within the electorate would have assisted him, I don't believe that would simply equate to a 6.5% swing and any attempts to try and paint the swing simply on the merits of either candidate are just futile attempts at spin.