China Rising (1 Viewer)

melb22

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you just had to see the recent G8 meeting. Previously the western countries could have all the decisions in their favour. This time around it wasnt the case as china and india now have significant global clout and backing from the developing world. Usa is not doing itself a favour by bullying all the weaker nations. In terms of ppp, china and india combined would be bigger then europe and usa b4 2040. Even in terms of total gdp, china will have a economy of 40 trillion, usa 30 trillion and india 24 trillion in 2050. Compared to that the 4th biggest economy by then would be japan at 6 trillion. So those 3 countries would be by then much much bigger then rest of the economies.

Most asian economies witnessed slow down in their economies once their gdp/capita was around 50-60% that of USA. China would be more then double the size of usa by then. Every country that is no.1 becomes no.2 one day and usa is no exception. Even India after being the biggest economy for 1500 years did come down.

Many people say yeah they told the same thing about japan and look what happen. If u look at the population of japan which is less then half that of usa. So if ever japan had to have a economy the same size of usa it's gdp/capita had to be more then twice that of usa which would put it around $84,000 which is quite difficult to achieve. In china's case they just need there gdp/capita to be 1/4th of usa and they will have a bigger economy then usa and i dont see why that is not possible in the years to come. the next few centuries belong to asia in the same way the last 3-4 centuries belonged to europeans.
 

loquasagacious

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Refer to my previous post, economics/life in general is not linear. China's current growth rate would make it larger than the US IF things were linear, but they are not. China's current rate of economic growth is unsustainable for several reasons:
-Demographic pressures:
*legacy of one-child policy = too many men
*Urban shift
-Political problems:
*Transition from a communist dictatorship to some form of more representative government will be difficult.
*The taiwan, north korea and hong kong questions
-Economics of catch up.

To elaborate on the last point part of the reason that China is growing so rapidly is that the growth is driven by adopting existing technologies. Therefore as China becomes technologically on par with the developed world this sort of growth will fade. It takes far longer to develope a new technology and deploy it than it does to deploy an existing one.

If you desire an example of this look at the growth undergone through the meiji restoration in Japan, this was driven by adopting existing technologies. Two important differences are: japan was relatively speaking further behind than china is therefore growth will be less this time around. Secondly China has more people and more resources which introduces economics of scale indicating better growth than Japan.

As an important note though, I think that China infact has diseconomics of scale that is numbers are so large as to be inefficient and hamper productivity. As a rider to this though technological improvements can turn diseconomics into economics and unleash more growth. In this way Chinas growth is driven by the chinese economy 'coming onstream' therefore when it is onstream growth will be slower.

Turning to the Taiwan question:

Integration is inevitable. I expect as China becomes more of a liberal, capitalist, democracy the 'Taiwanese' will forget their differences and hitch their wagon to a fast growing China. It will make overwhelming economic sense to do so and social/cultural barriers will have faded. As a note the differences will also die. Which is to say that we are seeing a changing of the guard in Taiwan as those who fought the communists in the 40s die and leave Taiwan to their descendents who have not been prejudiced by war.
 

turtleface

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haha@ suggestions of U.S. attacking China.

Every war that the U.S. has fought in, where the other side has had some level of chinese backing, the U.S. has never won. e.g. Korea, Nam. Any attack on China will lead to massive reprisals. China is not Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. can just bomb the shit out of into submission. I daresay some Soviet Technology is still more effective than U.S. hardware.

Additionally, China is currently holding the U.S. economy togethor. Have you seen the U.S. current account? But I guess killing all those creditors solves some problems...

The major concern with china at the moment is the enormous environmental damage occuring as a result of this economic growth, and this is probably more dangerous in the long run
 

Not-That-Bright

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turtleface said:
haha@ suggestions of U.S. attacking China.
Yea I agree, I don't think it's too likely as it would hurt both countries too much. But I also think you have a lower view of USA than you perhaps should.

Every war that the U.S. has fought in, where the other side has had some level of chinese backing, the U.S. has never won. e.g. Korea, Nam.
Yes I don't think people would ever suggest the US Launch a ground-invasion of China....


Any attack on China will lead to massive reprisals. China is not Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. can just bomb the shit out of into submission.
In this imagined war.. I imagine both sides would be fighting over something rather serious, so of course massive reprisals would come... it's a war between two super-powers.

I daresay some Soviet Technology is still more effective than U.S. hardware.
No. All that it is, is that America loses fighting ascemetric wars - so people think they're weak. The soviet union also lost these types of wars, it's a hard fight to win. You also have the media factor, which will report instantly after the bomb's land of whether and women/children have been hurt.
 

Ktulu-Spiral

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The invasion thing was a joke. It would be suicide to attack China. I was more joking about the US invasion of Iraq on a false pretense.

But seriously, I don't want three billion asians running the world. I have asian friends, and you guys are cool in moderation and all, but there's too many of you fuckers. ;-P

I dread the day the whole human race is a black haired, asiatic/indian bunch of five foot clones living westernised lifestyles. However many hundreds of years away it may be, and no matter how dead I am by then.

We're so concerned with protecting biodiversity in animals, I wonder what future holds for the diversity of race and culture of our own kind.
 

_dhj_

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Ktulu-Spiral said:
But seriously, I don't want three billion asians running the world. I have asian friends, and you guys are cool in moderation and all, but there's too many of you fuckers. ;-P

I dread the day the whole human race is a black haired, asiatic/indian bunch of five foot clones living westernised lifestyles. However many hundreds of years away it may be, and no matter how dead I am by then.
I guess this is why One Nation managed to get votes... :)
 

lala2

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Apparently India is the next one...read a back issue of Time magazine yesterday. Interesting how they focused on Bombay/Mumbai though, and not in conjunction with New Delhi or something.
 

fallen__angel

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dandel26 said:
What do u think the future of Taiwan is? Complete incorporation into China or same as is at the moment?
well, as long as the majority of true Taiwanese people wake up and realise they're being brainwashed by the opposing parties and some of the media, Taiwan will be a truly free country. I just hope Taiwan can gain independence like Singapore or Ireland (I'm to be corrected on Ireland, cos I'm not familiar with European politics)
 

melb22

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lala2 said:
Apparently India is the next one...read a back issue of Time magazine yesterday. Interesting how they focused on Bombay/Mumbai though, and not in conjunction with New Delhi or something.
Because Mumbai is the commercial capital of india and also the most happening city in india. India has a long journey to finish but we are moving in the right direction. Right now china is clearly ahead of india in terms of literacy rate, per capita income and military might. I personally dont think the future is either china or india but China and India. there is plenty of room for both the countries.
 

loquasagacious

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Wrong.

There is never room for two superpowers. The USA and USSR were not even in direct geopolitical contact however came into worldwide (albeit) conflict. Comapre this to China and India who have directly competiting strategic interests. eg both border on central asia and south east asia. Both will seek to dominate these regions. Furthermore oil is and will continue to be important for them both so just as the USA and USSR competed in the middle-east so will China and Japan. Seeing as there's oil in central asia hey presto we have a second reason to compete in that region.

Just to mix the barrel up further the USSR will not look kindly on either power expanding their interest in central asia. The USA for its part (via proxies Indonesia and the Phillipines) will oppose expansion of influence in South East Asia.

Finally we can add the fact that islamic militants who oppose all parties previously mentioned are active in all of the named areas of competition. It will make for interesting times to be sure.
 

Iron

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loquasagacious said:
Just to mix the barrel up further the USSR will not look kindly on either power expanding their interest in central asia.
I thought those guys broke up?
 

supercharged

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Actually India and China have quite warm relations nowdays after the thaw of the cold war. There really isn't anything for them to fight over since they are so geographically and culturally seperate from each other and only share a minimal common border in the mountains, to which the boundary issue has already been settled diplomatically.

I think in the near future it is near certain that China will be the dominant power in East Asia whilst India will the dominant power in the South Asian region. And about influence in Central Asia, they won't compete since India is looking to join the SCO which would make them both on the same side rather than trying to outbid each other.

Also China has the advantage in the stability of an autocratic government rule which allows long term critical infrastructure and economic direction to be implemented, without being crippled by regional political factionalism and short term vote buying spending, when an emerging economy become democratic too early in its development cycle (ie the success of South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore Vs Phillipines, Indonesia, Mongolia). This is one of the reasons why China is currently far more developed than India.

India struggles to catch China

By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
BBC News, Delhi and Beijing


The rapid growth of the Indian and Chinese economies have transformed the two countries in recent years. But this prosperity has also brought other problems.


Heavy investment has turned Beijing into a modern city
I think it was in 2003, that the world suddenly woke up to China.

I am not sure what caused it to happen, what particular event or news story. I just remembered the phone in the BBC's Beijing Bureau started ringing and it has not stopped since.

Well now it is happening again and this time it is not China, it is India.

Every time you turn on the television or pick up a magazine, it is no longer the rise of China, it is now the rise of China and India.

The desire to make comparisons is understandable. Both have more than a billion people. Both are growing at 10% a year.

There are, I suspect, many who are hoping that India, with its freedom and democracy, will win this new race to become the next economic super power. I am not so sure.

I have spent the last eight years living in Beijing, and only four days in Delhi, so comparisons are difficult.

But the few days I recently spent in India made me look at China in a new light.


'Shocking experience'


Over 15 million people live in Delhi
Delhi is an overwhelming experience. It is as if all of humanity has been squeezed into one city.

The streets groan under the weight of people. The air is filled with deafening noise and sumptuous smells.

Switch on the television and it is the same.

Between channels blasting out voluptuous Bollywood love stories and pop videos, an endless stream of news channels dissect the latest political scandals, and debauched lifestyles of the rich and famous.

Coming from China it is an almost shocking experience.

But after the initial delight at being in an open society, I started to notice other things.

Foreign tourists stared in bewilderment; locals with the resigned look of those used to waiting

The hotel was expensive and bad. In my room I searched for a high speed internet connection, a standard feature in any hotel in China. There was not one.

Then with the night-time temperature still well above 30C (86F) the power went out.

I lay for hours soaked in sweat trying, and failing, to get back to sleep and wishing I was back in Beijing where the lights never go out.

But getting back would not be easy.

Passenger queues

I looked at my plane ticket. Departure time 0315. Surely that could not be right.

I called the front desk. "That's correct sir," he said, "the airport is too small so many flights from Delhi leave in the middle of the night."

He was not joking.

My taxi struggled along the Jaipur road towards the airport.

The two-lane road was clogged by an endless convoy of lorries. Finally I arrived at Indira Gandhi International airport. Despite the hour it was teeming with people.

The queues snaked around the airport and back to where they had started.

Foreign tourists stared in bewilderment. Locals with the resigned look of those used to waiting.

I could not help feeling a sense of relief at being back in a country where things work

"Is it always like this?" I asked a man in the queue ahead of me.

"Pretty much," he sighed.

I was finally shepherded aboard the flight to Shanghai.

Next to me sat a friendly looking Indian man in shorts and running shoes.

"Is this your first trip to China?" he asked me.

"No," I replied, "I live there."

"Really," he said, his interest piqued, "what should I expect?"

"I think," I said, "you should expect to be surprised."

Jaw dropping

Six hours later, our plane taxied to a halt in front of the soaring glass and steel of Shanghai's Pudong International Airport.


In Delhi I had been shocked to see thousands of people sleeping rough on the streets every night, nothing but the few rags they slept in to call their own

As we emerged into the cool silence of the ultra-modern terminal, my new companion's jaw slid towards his belly button.

"I was not expecting this," he said, his eyes wide in wonder. "Oh no, I definitely was not expecting this".

I also found myself looking at China afresh.

Later that day as I drove home from Beijing airport along the smooth six-lane highway I could not help feeling a sense of relief at being back in a country where things work.

And it was not just the airports and roads.

Driving through a village on the edge of Beijing I was struck by how well everyone was dressed.

In Delhi, I had been shocked to see thousands of people sleeping rough on the streets every night, nothing but the few rags they slept in to call their own. Even deep in China's countryside that is not something you will see.


In Delhi I had been told of the wonders of India's new economy, of the tens of thousands of bright young graduates churning out the world's latest computer software.

I thought of China's new economy, of the tens of millions of rural migrants who slave away in factories, making everything from plimsolls to plasma televisions.

And of the same rural migrants, heading home to their villages at Chinese New Year festival loaded down with gifts, their pockets stuffed full of cash.

China is not a free society, and it has immense problems. But its successes should not be underestimated.

They are ones that India, even with its open and democratic society, is still far from matching.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/5181024.stm
 

melb22

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supercharged said:
Actually India and China have quite warm relations nowdays after the thaw of the cold war. There really isn't anything for them to fight over since they are so geographically and culturally seperate from each other and only share a minimal common border in the mountains, to which the boundary issue has already been settled diplomatically.

I think in the near future it is near certain that China will be the dominant power in East Asia whilst India will the dominant power in the South Asian region. And about influence in Central Asia, they won't compete since India is looking to join the SCO which would make them both on the same side rather than trying to outbid each other.

Also China has the advantage in the stability of an autocratic government rule which allows long term critical infrastructure and economic direction to be implemented, without being crippled by regional political factionalism and short term vote buying spending, when an emerging economy become democratic too early in its development cycle (ie the success of South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore Vs Phillipines, Indonesia, Mongolia). This is one of the reasons why China is currently far more developed than India.
I think with the increase in the trade between india and china which is around 20 billion right now, not a lot right now but there is scope for fast growth in the overall trade between those two countries, that would make these two countries even more closer. Even though india still doesnt trust China completely after they backstabbed in the 1960's after coining the term hindi-chini -bhai-bhai(indians and chinese are brothers) and then attacked India. But india would like to have more friendlier, closer ties with china and they do have it now compared to the 60's and so does china. When India had the nuclear test in 1998 the biggest reason behind that was to have a deterent against china. But there is a long time to go before there is any major problems between the two countries if that ever happens for global supremacy. India will become bigger then usa around 2060, which is a long time away.

India can learn a lot from china's progress in the last 30 years and we are doing some of the stuff that china actually implemented and had great results. China has lots of SEZ(special economic zones) and now india from this year have started as well though all of it would be run by private sectors. If u look at the key factors like literacy, infant mortality rate, gdp/capita of china and india in 70's it was almost the same before china started the reform and now china is almost twice as better. The reform in india started in mid 90's and hopefully india is able to alleviate poverty the same way china did in the years to come. India has it fair share of advantages because of it's democracy, vibrancy, diversity, powerfull media, better financial sector which would make it ever better once the absolute poverty is removed which i think is possible within the next 30 years.
 
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Serius

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well thats ok because by 2060 we will all be fucked, global warming, pollution, oil and coal ran out as a fuel source... yeah i dont think people are going to be caring about the ecconomy so much then.
 

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The country that's really going to lose out in south asia is pakistan. While India and China are powering ahead pakistan is standing still. Militarily India will get further and further ahead of pakistan.
 

melb22

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banco55 said:
The country that's really going to lose out in south asia is pakistan. While India and China are powering ahead pakistan is standing still. Militarily India will get further and further ahead of pakistan.
Actually there was never a balance between india and pakistan, but pakistan keeps on trying to show the world that by helping india, they are creating imbalance in the subcontinent. It is like nz telling dont give this to aus, dont give that to aus otherwise it will create imbalance in the oceania region. Actually the difference between india and pakistan in terms of economy size, military is much bigger then the difference between nz and aus.

I would personally like pakistan to develop, so that there is less incentive for their youth to join the terrorist groups which would lead to less death of civilians in india. Hopefully the coalition troops leave afghanistan soon so that they no longer need pakistan's help. right now pakistan plays a big role in spreading terrorism within india but west is still supporting them coz they need them for the operation in afghanistan.
 

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