Australian Politics (1 Viewer)

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

According to Dr. Economou, of Australia's fairly large number of past early elections, about 80% actually worked out in the incumbent government's favour.

So much for conventional wisdom.

On that note, the Coalition would lose another 20 House seats if an election were held now. That's so bad that for every 1 Coalition senator, there would be 2 Labour senators, and it's likely at least some Greens would win seats (that's certain if it becomes a double dissolution).

 

[Lentern]

I wouldnt even think that that matters. All people care about is the 2 major party leaders. We went presidential stylings long ago

The newbie is essentially some nobody that Stello decided to force upon Turnbull, at his weakest point, in a fundamentally nasty jab at his leadership

You wouldn't think it matters, in the time I have seen you deliver political commentary you have claimed the following: Latham was en route for victory until the final week of the campaign despite trailing in opinion polls for the entirety of his leadership. Peter Debnam's resignation from the coalition front bench has rendered the NSW opposition incapable of winning the next election. You described Malcolm Turnbull as destined for victory and shortly after he took the leadership called Rudd unlucky for coming up against so invincible a candidate so early in his premiership.

There is a reason why at the previous election Labor enjoyed a swing of 5.44% but in Fremantle where Carmen Lawrence was retiring the swing was only 1.38%. In Brand where Beazley retired the primary vote actually went down, the 2pp swing was less than a percent. In Cowan where Edwards retired there was a 2.5% swing to the liberals. Likewise in Leichardt where a liberal MP retired Labor got a 14% swing. Forde was the same scenario and got the same swing. In Fadden where a liberal mp retired the primary vote went down 11%. Having a sitting member is worth a few percent easily. Higgins needs about a seven percent swing and at the moment it looks like there will be a national swing close to, perhaps more than two percent to the ALP. The liberal party do not want to go into the general election without a sitting member in Higgins.

On the same subject I'd bet the national debt that there will be a swing to the liberals in Denison greater than 5%.

 

[Lentern]

The Nationals are openly contemplating ending the Coalition, The Liberals are openly criticising and plotting against their party leader, and most delusional of all, half of the Coalition thinks that the voters will reward them at an election for denying the existence of climate change and being obstructive on the issue - at a time when almost all businesses are acknowledging something needs to be done and flocking behind either Rudd or Turnbull's carbon reduction policies, along with an electorate in which 70% to 80% of voters support a carbon reduction policy (including a full half of all Coalition voters).

Not to mention the obvious: the global financial crisis and Australia's subsequent rapid recovery from it made an abject mockery of the Liberal party's claims that Labour would only lead us to financial ruin and tax hikes (Rudd actually lowered taxes).

Rudd is the only PM in history to achieve and sustain two years into his term the same record high approval rating he had when he became PM; every other PM has rapidly lost ground to the opposition, often such that the opposition becomes the preferred political party. Whether you attribute this to Rudd's success or the Coalition's failure is largely irrelevant; it's an ominous sign for the Coalition.

For reference, in the latest Newspoll, 31% of respondents would vote Liberal, while 46% would vote Labour. That's possibly one of the worst results in the Liberals's history. 4% would vote Nationals, 10% Greens. If an election were held today, Labour would have twice as many House seats as the Coalition, compared to just the 25% more it holds currently.

I'm not silly enough to assert that the Liberal party is extinct, but it's certainly evident that they've done permanent damage to their brand and ideology. The kind of damage that takes 3 or 4 lost elections in a row to repair.

And that even ignores the demographic crisis they face as they emulate their Republican counterparts in America: appealing more and more to the shrinking population of old white rural men as their opponents embrace the expanding pool of youth and immigrants.

I figured Turnbull might be someone to turn the Liberal party's fortunes around in the long-term, but now I don't think he'll survive long enough as leader to get a chance. And besides, he's too hotheaded.

Your facts are accurate, your arguments sound and it all makes sense that this would lead to an ALP landslide next year. But the doom and gloom stuff about the coalitions long term acts on the reasonable assumption that electoral trends build up and change through incremental transitions. They'll get thrashed in the next election but at the next one the slate will be wiped clean. In 1993 the ALP enjoyed a comfortable swing. In the wake of their election win they pulled out further in front in the opinion polls before suffering a thrashing at the next election. In 2004 the ALP suffered its worse result since 1977, in 2007 it won comfortably and unseated the prime minister in the process.

Like Hawke and Fraser Rudd will probably maintain comfortable leads for the first five years of his premiership before sharp swings to the opposition at the subsequent election. It goes without saying that this is reliant upon an electable leader contesting the subsequent election which means no Abbott, Pyne or Dutton.

According to Dr. Economou, of Australia's fairly large number of past early elections, about 80% actually worked out in the incumbent government's favour.

So much for conventional wisdom.

On that note, the Coalition would lose another 20 House seats if an election were held now. That's so bad that for every 1 Coalition senator, there would be 2 Labour senators, and it's likely at least some Greens would win seats (that's certain if it becomes a double dissolution).

Does Dr Eco factor into account that no government in their right mind is actually going to call an early election if conditions seem unfavourable whereas a lot of full term elections are called as a matter of obligation?

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

Fair point about the slate being wiped clean. I don't think it's wiped entirely clean, but I certainly may be exaggerating the Coalition's fate if a shrewd leader emerges or Rudd makes a super-blunder.

On another note, economists seem pretty shit at predicting Australia's path. The median unemployment increase penned for this month was from 5.8% to 6.0%. It fell to 5.7%.

 

[Iron]

Poor Turnbull. He's a sad picture of thwarted ambition. Sapped of his aggressive vitality the cameras shoot this bleeding lion

 

[JonathanM]

Poor Turnbull. He's a sad picture of thwarted ambition. Sapped of his aggressive vitality the cameras shoot this bleeding lion

Well put.

But he had to have known he never stood a chance. He even came into power whilst people still didn't know what Costello would be doing and he would have had to have taken into account that any leadership challenge from Peter would have knocked him off his perch.

 

[Lentern]

Poor Turnbull. He's a sad picture of thwarted ambition. Sapped of his aggressive vitality the cameras shoot this bleeding lion

That's what he gets for rolling the good Doctor without giving him a chance. If he'd gone through the correct channels, served Brendan loyally right now it might be a different story. Also serves him right for being a smart arse about Costello on Lateline and Qanda.

 

[Iron]

maybe he can still forge a message more exciting than debt... Unleash ur grand ideas turnbull!
Na it's no use. He just joined the wrong burping party. Take the diplomatic posting from kev and flee m8. Woo one party state

 

[S.H.O.D.A.N.]

Greens want stimulus spending cut back now economy is recovering, to remove the need for any tax increases or services cuts in future.

Rein in stimulus spending, Rudd told | The Australian


Greens are also in talks with a Liberal senator to vote with them on the ETS, thus providing another means of passing it in the Senate. I'd be interested to know who they've been talking to in the Liberal party and whether or not they plan to get any concessions from Labour, such as an increase from the piddly 5% cut currently planned.

Greens lobby Libson emissions deal - Local News - News - Political - The Canberra Times

 

[Nashie]

I can't find it online but did anyone else read about nick adams in america in the sunday telegraph?

It is hilarious, dude you obviously want a future in australian politics, so maybe talk up australia not the US. He is also one of our best "orators"... at 25

he's my idol.... obviously i cant wait to grow up and be the deputy mayor of ashfield and write a book about how good the US is!

 

[Lentern]

I can't find it online but did anyone else read about nick adams in america in the sunday telegraph?

It is hilarious, dude you obviously want a future in australian politics, so maybe talk up australia not the US. He is also one of our best "orators"... at 25

he's my idol.... obviously i cant wait to grow up and be the deputy mayor of ashfield and write a book about how good the US is!

Should I have heard of this Adams character?

 

[Nashie]

"youngest deputy mayor in the country"

in ashfield, inner west syd, young lib guy i thought the article was hilarious

 

[Lentern]

"youngest deputy mayor in the country"

in ashfield, inner west syd, young lib guy i thought the article was hilarious

I see so he's like Sydneys very own Mike Flaherty. Maybe it's because I don't read the telegraph.

 

[wixxy2348]

So I have a lecture next.
I am dead tired, but I'm looking forward to it as it is being held by a guest lecturer, Tim Dixon, who is apparently a Senior Adviser to KRudd.
We get open question time at the end. In a heckling mood.
Any issues anyone wants me to put forward?

 

[wixxy2348]

Someone asked a question about who the most formidable opposition leader would be.
He answered that Costello would be, because the general public would associate him with the economic track record of the Howard government.
Or Abbott, as he'd be "entertaining"

Is Turnbull going to topple before the next federal election?

 

[Lentern]

Once upon a long ago I compared English Labour to NSW Labor. I'm retracting that comparison in favour of Federal Liberals and NSW labor. The ill discipline, the scandals, the unpopularity, the resignations the alternative who don't bother formulating policies because they don't need to its all there. The only difference is that NSW labor did their first leadership switch before 2007 which proved enough to get them over the line for another term. NSW labor is viewed as worse because all these horrible things are happening when in government not in opposition about which nobody really cares. Peter Costello may well have dodged the bullet of his life when Howard didn't hand over to him in 05/06.

 

[whatashotbyseve]

I don't think any sane person could compare federal Libs with state Labor? State Labor is a basket case, paralysed by union hacks running the state. Federal Libs are at least doing their job and putting the government to task. I think Turnbull is doing as best at could be expected at any rate. Clearly Rudd is going to get a second term regardless of what the Lbs do so why fire your aces early?

 

[Lentern]

I don't think any sane person could compare federal Libs with state Labor? State Labor is a basket case, paralysed by union hacks running the state. Federal Libs are at least doing their job and putting the government to task. I think Turnbull is doing as best at could be expected at any rate. Clearly Rudd is going to get a second term regardless of what the Lbs do so why fire your aces early?

Can't you at least pretend to be objective? The sheer notion that the liberals are achieving anything when Newspoll today had the government at 59% should tell you that whatever the coalitions influence; it exists at the mercy of the government. Federal liberal:
-Former leaders and deputy leaders resigning and causing by-elections because they couldn't get their way.
-Former treasurer lampooning the party leadership.
-Backbenchers going from coast to coast to try and undermine the present leadership.
-Made False, slanderous accusations against the government which have been proved that by the AFP.
-Are now considering making one of the least popular ministers of the previous government party leader.
-Aside from foreign policy are unclear and inconsistent to a dangerous extent were they in government.

It is what happens when you have a party full of warring factions and an electorally successful leader manages to keep them behaved then he retires and the party has no such tsar at the front and those who don't get their way either thwart those who do or just stop caring.

 

[Otacon2009]

Just an open question for all: Does anyone watch Question Time (Particularly the House of Representatives) because the sight of grown men and women behaving like school children is an amusing sight? Whenever I can, I try to watch QT for that reason. Sure it is low brow, however IMO it makes a good 2pm break from the soaps and midday movies the other networks have at that time.

 

[Lentern]

Just an open question for all: Does anyone watch Question Time (Particularly the House of Representatives) because the sight of grown men and women behaving like school children is an amusing sight? Whenever I can, I try to watch QT for that reason. Sure it is low brow, however IMO it makes a good 2pm break from the soaps and midday movies the other networks have at that time.

Yes I've often pondered that people complain about how childish they are but when Rudd is gives a long explanation of policy he is lampooned as a boring lecturer. Similarly the foreign minister rarely says anything but policy but nobody really gets excited when he rises to speak. They all want to see Julia and Albo and censures motions always get the column inches in Annabelle Crabbes squalid little rag so its hard to know what the people want. Keating is often lauded as the best of them and he rarely answered questions so its really a do as i mean not as i say kind of thing.