2008 Presidential Election - Obama v McCain (2 Viewers)

[withoutaface]

While I agree Obama's clearly the more probable candidate, if you look at the way prices are worked out there's going to be a huge inherenet lag in the system to respond to any change in circumstances becase there's a lot of money behind each candidate already.

 

[Muz4PM]

Reagan was also old, and he was amazingest president ever.

QFT

 

[Slidey]

Zaphod for president

 

[Muz4PM]

Interestingly enough 30% of people say McCain is too old against 41% who think Obama is too inexerienced.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/41_say_obama_too_inexperienced_30_say_mccain_too_old

^Rasmussen, for all your polling needs.

 

[spiny norman]

Reagan was also old, and he was amazingest president ever.

The man who ignored AIDS, excessively spent money on ludicrous defence programmes, who spent billions of dollars in expanding the war on drugs and who spent much of his second term in early stages of Alzheimer's is more amazing than Lincoln or either Roosevelt?

The man was worse than Nixon.

 

[Iron]

The man who ignored AIDS, excessively spent money on ludicrous defence programmes, who spent billions of dollars in expanding the war on drugs and who spent much of his second term in early stages of Alzheimer's is more amazing than Lincoln or either Roosevelt?

The man was worse than Nixon.

But he did give them back their confidence.
I dont see McCain doing that.
But you never know, China might mysteriously collapse like the other Communism and America might get a second shot at ruling the world.

Wonder what the approach to terrorism will be? Could be a backlash if it's perceived that McCain is blatantly pushing the Obama-Osama thing, but Obama is pretty piss-weak on security atm.
Gunna b prity clothes

 

[lyounamu]

My Hillary is gone. Now I am becoming Obama boy.

 

[JaredR]

My Hillary is gone. Now I am becoming Obama boy.

Br. Hoffman would not approve.

 

[Iron]

My Hillary is gone. Now I am becoming Obama boy.

Why? Because she told us to.
Hillary
-Obey

 

[HalcyonSky]

i'll be voting for obama

oh wait

 

[Graney]

But you never know, China might mysteriously collapse like the other Communism and America might get a second shot at ruling the world.

That wouldn't be mysterious at all. Estimated up to 40% of chinese businesses are bubble companies- gone at the slightest sign of a downturn. The chinese economy has grown too hard too fast. The chinese stockmarket is set to crash hard, and bring the rest of the worlds markets with it.

When the promised benefits of economic liberalisation are lost in a chinese economic crash, massive upheaval and possibly total revolution in China seem a highly likely prospect.

 

[veloc1ty]

McCain at his terrifying best!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9izhjnaLa3M

 

[wziontek]

for those interested in american odds..
betfair.com has obama 1.59 and mccain 2.94

http://politics.betfair.com/

barack 'n' roll '08

 

[chicky_pie]

Why? Because she told us to.
Hillary
-Obey

Do you want him to become a PUMA instead? lol

 

[KFunk]

My vote (as a dual citizen of Aus and the USA) will be for Obama. I feel that it will be a great loss to the world if he doesn't make it through; I will undoubtedly shed a tear if he doesn't succeed.

 

[Iron]

McCain at his terrifying best!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9izhjnaLa3M

OMG
Happy to call the election for Obama after that shit.

McCain is going to crash and burn, just like... uh... insensitive analogy.
Obama is going to eat this vegetable alive (if he IS alive)
AAAAAAaaaaaAaaaaah McCain youve fucked up again.

 

[withoutaface]

what garbage. aren't you a proponent of the efficiency of markets. if prices are out of line with what current evidence suggest, people will rush to take advantage of the expected profits. the market never runs out of money waf.

also, out of interest, who would you support here waffles?

The market for, say, oranges today works almost independently of what the price was a week ago. The betting market is skewed not to represent the chance of a candidate winning, but such that the prices reflect the amount of money that's been thrown behind each candidate over the last couple of years (because this generates a profit for the betting agency, obviously). There is, of course a link between the two, but market prices represent who people thought would win 12 months ago as much as they represent what is happening now and the longer the market runs (the US election season is nortoriously long, so this is relevant) the longer it will take the market to adjust to changes in polls, etc. Through your modelling if there happened to be a sex scandal with McCain then everyone would rush and throw hundreds of thousands on Obama, and then if Obama killed a man the betting market might be close to saturation point so there mightn't be as big a rush because they'd have to invest greater and greater amounts of money (and there is a maximum amount that people are generally willing to bet on this shit). This isn't to say that they're not a good indicator of what's happening (they are), just that they're not perfect.

McCain's been the second guy I'd back after Ron Paul since late last year, so yeah behind him.

 

[Slidey]

My vote (as a dual citizen of Aus and the USA) will be for Obama. I feel that it will be a great loss to the world if he doesn't make it through; I will undoubtedly shed a tear if he doesn't succeed.

That's good to hear.

 

[chicky_pie]

OMG
Happy to call the election for Obama after that shit.

McCain is going to crash and burn, just like... uh... insensitive analogy.
Obama is going to eat this vegetable alive (if he IS alive)
AAAAAAaaaaaAaaaaah McCain youve fucked up again.

You think THAT video was shocking?

Have a look at this video of McCain

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfealLrWLIY

 

[incentivation]

arbitrage pricing theory dumbass

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_pricing_theory

think before you post.

Of course, I knew I overlooked something..